Product:
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2010 Feb 09 2151 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
01 - 07 February 2010
Solar activity began the period at very low levels with only a few low-level B-class events for 01-04 February. Beginning on 05 February, however, there was a steady increase in background levels and an increase of flare activity with 5 B-class events. Solar images indicated the emergence of new Region 1045 (N23, L=253, class/area Fkc/320 on 07 February) which was numbered on 06 February. This group emerged rapidly and increased activity levels to moderate on 06 February as it produced an M2/Sn flare at 06/1859 UTC and an M1 x-ray event at 06/2137 UTC (associated with a coronal mass ejection observed on the east limb), as well as five C-class events. The region continued to grow on 07 February and increased activity to high levels as it produced an M6/1n at 07/0234 UTC which was associated with a Tenflare (2695 MHz radio burst with peak flux of 170 solar flux units) and a halo coronal mass ejection. The estimated plane-of-sky speed for the halo CME was about 360 km/s.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background levels from 01 February through 1530 UTC on 03 February. Flux levels increased to moderate levels until 1300 UTC on 06 February after which the flux returned to normal background levels.
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels for 01-03 February, with a few isolated active intervals and one high-latitude minor storm interval from 1200-1500 UTC on 01 February. Geomagnetic activity was predominantly quiet for 04-07 February, with the exception of a brief unsettled to active interval from 1200-1800 UTC on 06 February. Real-time solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed an increase in solar wind velocity beginning late on 02 February which reached a peak around 580 km/s early on 03 February and slowly declined over 03-04 February. This signature was most likely associated with a small negative polarity coronal hole that was observed in the northern hemisphere of the Sun. An enhancement in the interplanetary magnetic field was observed beginning mid-day on 06 February and lasting about 8 hours, with Bt reaching a maximum around 9 nT, and Bz reaching values down to -8 nT.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 February - 08 March 2010
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a slight chance for a major flare as 1045 remains on the disk from 10-14 February. Activity levels should decrease to low to very low levels for 15-28 February but may increase to low to moderate levels for 01-08 March as old Regions 1045 and 1040 are due to return on 28 February and 01 March, respectively.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels through most of the period.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods for 10-14 February as a series of CME’s associated with activity from Region 1045 may arrive and impact the Earth during this time frame. In addition there is a slight chance for minor storm periods on 12 February due to the expected arrival of the halo CME associated with the M6 event mentioned previously. Quiet conditions are expected for 15 February, followed by quiet to unsettled levels due to a recurrent coronal hole on 16-17 February. Quiet levels should return and prevail for 18-28 February, followed by an increase to mostly unsettled levels on 01-02 March due to another recurrent coronal hole. Quiet levels should return for the remainder of the period from 03-08 March.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 Feb 09 2151 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010 Feb 09
01 - 07 February 2010
Solar activity began the period at very low levels with only a few low-level B-class events for 01-04 February. Beginning on 05 February, however, there was a steady increase in background levels and an increase of flare activity with 5 B-class events. Solar images indicated the emergence of new Region 1045 (N23, L=253, class/area Fkc/320 on 07 February) which was numbered on 06 February. This group emerged rapidly and increased activity levels to moderate on 06 February as it produced an M2/Sn flare at 06/1859 UTC and an M1 x-ray event at 06/2137 UTC (associated with a coronal mass ejection observed on the east limb), as well as five C-class events. The region continued to grow on 07 February and increased activity to high levels as it produced an M6/1n at 07/0234 UTC which was associated with a Tenflare (2695 MHz radio burst with peak flux of 170 solar flux units) and a halo coronal mass ejection. The estimated plane-of-sky speed for the halo CME was about 360 km/s.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background levels from 01 February through 1530 UTC on 03 February. Flux levels increased to moderate levels until 1300 UTC on 06 February after which the flux returned to normal background levels.
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels for 01-03 February, with a few isolated active intervals and one high-latitude minor storm interval from 1200-1500 UTC on 01 February. Geomagnetic activity was predominantly quiet for 04-07 February, with the exception of a brief unsettled to active interval from 1200-1800 UTC on 06 February. Real-time solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed an increase in solar wind velocity beginning late on 02 February which reached a peak around 580 km/s early on 03 February and slowly declined over 03-04 February. This signature was most likely associated with a small negative polarity coronal hole that was observed in the northern hemisphere of the Sun. An enhancement in the interplanetary magnetic field was observed beginning mid-day on 06 February and lasting about 8 hours, with Bt reaching a maximum around 9 nT, and Bz reaching values down to -8 nT.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 February - 08 March 2010
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a slight chance for a major flare as 1045 remains on the disk from 10-14 February. Activity levels should decrease to low to very low levels for 15-28 February but may increase to low to moderate levels for 01-08 March as old Regions 1045 and 1040 are due to return on 28 February and 01 March, respectively.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels through most of the period.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods for 10-14 February as a series of CME’s associated with activity from Region 1045 may arrive and impact the Earth during this time frame. In addition there is a slight chance for minor storm periods on 12 February due to the expected arrival of the halo CME associated with the M6 event mentioned previously. Quiet conditions are expected for 15 February, followed by quiet to unsettled levels due to a recurrent coronal hole on 16-17 February. Quiet levels should return and prevail for 18-28 February, followed by an increase to mostly unsettled levels on 01-02 March due to another recurrent coronal hole. Quiet levels should return for the remainder of the period from 03-08 March.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt:Issued: 2010 Feb 09 2151 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010 Feb 09
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Feb 10 92 9 3
2010 Feb 11 90 11 3
2010 Feb 12 90 13 3
2010 Feb 13 90 10 3
2010 Feb 14 85 10 3
2010 Feb 15 85 5 2
2010 Feb 16 85 8 3
2010 Feb 17 85 7 2
2010 Feb 18 85 5 2
2010 Feb 19 85 5 2
2010 Feb 20 85 5 2
2010 Feb 21 80 5 2
2010 Feb 22 80 5 2
2010 Feb 23 80 5 2
2010 Feb 24 75 5 2
2010 Feb 25 75 5 2
2010 Feb 26 75 5 2
2010 Feb 27 75 5 2
2010 Feb 28 80 5 2
2010 Mar 01 85 10 3
2010 Mar 02 85 10 3
2010 Mar 03 85 5 2
2010 Mar 04 85 5 2
2010 Mar 05 85 5 2
2010 Mar 06 85 5 2
2010 Mar 07 85 5 2
2010 Mar 08 85 5 2
(NOAA)