Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2010 Jun 01 1851 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
24 - 30 May 2010
Solar activity was very low during the period. The week began with one sunspot group, Region 1072 (S15, L=315, class/area DSI/130 on 23 May), which slowly decayed and quietly exited the disk on 28 May. Region 1072 produced two B flares during the week, a B6 at 25/1550 UTC and a B1 at 27/2315 UTC. A partial halo CME was observed on 24 May, beginning at 1407 UTC (in SOHO LASCO C2 images) and was associated with long-duration B1 x-ray event (maximum at 24/1446 UTC). The CME originated from a filament channel near N15W32. Three small sunspot groups were numbered on 29 May but were very simple and did not produce any flare activity.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background or moderate levels for most of the week until 30 May when the flux reached high levels.
The geomagnetic field began the week at quiet levels and continued quiet until early on 28 May when a shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at 0203 UTC. The shock was followed by a sudden impulse at 0259 UTC and mostly unsettled geomagnetic activity with some active to minor storm periods at high latitudes. The disturbance most likely originated from the 23 May halo CME described in last week’s report. A second transient was observed to pass ACE on 29 May and was characterized by strengthening of the interplanetary magnetic field Bt to about 15 nT with a predominantly southward component, Bz, to values around -14 nT. The sustained negative Bz interval lasted about 21 hours and resulted in active to minor storm level activity with some major storm periods at high latitudes. The second transient was likely the result of the halo CME observed on 24 May. A density increase at ACE was followed by a steady increase in solar wind velocity on 30 May which was likely the result of a recurrent co-rotating interaction region followed by a coronal hole high speed stream. The resultant geomagnetic activity consisted of mostly unsettled to active levels with occasional storm periods at
the high latitudes.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 - 28 June 2010
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels at the beginning of the period from 02-06 June. Normal background levels are expected for 07-09 June followed by another increase to high levels for 10-12 June in response to a recurrent high speed stream. Normal background levels should predominate thereafter until 26 June when another increase to high levels is expected due to recurrence.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled for 02-03 June due to persistent effects from a high speed stream. Quiet levels are expected for 04-06 June, followed by an increase to mostly unsettled levels on 07-08 June in response to a high speed stream from a coronal hole. Quiet conditions should return for 09-15 June, followed by another interval of unsettled levels on 16-17 June due to another recurrent high speed stream. Quiet levels should prevail for 18-24 June, followed by yet another increase to unsettled to active levels for 25-28 June in response to a recurrent coronal hole.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jun 01 1851 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010 Jun 01
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Jun 02 72 10 3
2010 Jun 03 72 8 3
2010 Jun 04 72 5 2
2010 Jun 05 72 5 2
2010 Jun 06 72 5 2
2010 Jun 07 72 8 3
2010 Jun 08 72 8 3
2010 Jun 09 70 5 2
2010 Jun 10 70 5 2
2010 Jun 11 70 5 2
2010 Jun 12 70 5 2
2010 Jun 13 70 5 2
2010 Jun 14 70 5 2
2010 Jun 15 70 5 2
2010 Jun 16 70 8 3
2010 Jun 17 70 8 3
2010 Jun 18 72 5 2
2010 Jun 19 75 5 2
2010 Jun 20 75 5 2
2010 Jun 21 75 5 2
2010 Jun 22 75 5 2
2010 Jun 23 75 5 2
2010 Jun 24 75 5 2
2010 Jun 25 75 12 3
2010 Jun 26 75 15 3
2010 Jun 27 72 15 3
2010 Jun 28 72 8 3
(NOAA)
:Issued: 2010 Jun 01 1851 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
24 - 30 May 2010
Solar activity was very low during the period. The week began with one sunspot group, Region 1072 (S15, L=315, class/area DSI/130 on 23 May), which slowly decayed and quietly exited the disk on 28 May. Region 1072 produced two B flares during the week, a B6 at 25/1550 UTC and a B1 at 27/2315 UTC. A partial halo CME was observed on 24 May, beginning at 1407 UTC (in SOHO LASCO C2 images) and was associated with long-duration B1 x-ray event (maximum at 24/1446 UTC). The CME originated from a filament channel near N15W32. Three small sunspot groups were numbered on 29 May but were very simple and did not produce any flare activity.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background or moderate levels for most of the week until 30 May when the flux reached high levels.
The geomagnetic field began the week at quiet levels and continued quiet until early on 28 May when a shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at 0203 UTC. The shock was followed by a sudden impulse at 0259 UTC and mostly unsettled geomagnetic activity with some active to minor storm periods at high latitudes. The disturbance most likely originated from the 23 May halo CME described in last week’s report. A second transient was observed to pass ACE on 29 May and was characterized by strengthening of the interplanetary magnetic field Bt to about 15 nT with a predominantly southward component, Bz, to values around -14 nT. The sustained negative Bz interval lasted about 21 hours and resulted in active to minor storm level activity with some major storm periods at high latitudes. The second transient was likely the result of the halo CME observed on 24 May. A density increase at ACE was followed by a steady increase in solar wind velocity on 30 May which was likely the result of a recurrent co-rotating interaction region followed by a coronal hole high speed stream. The resultant geomagnetic activity consisted of mostly unsettled to active levels with occasional storm periods at
the high latitudes.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 - 28 June 2010
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels at the beginning of the period from 02-06 June. Normal background levels are expected for 07-09 June followed by another increase to high levels for 10-12 June in response to a recurrent high speed stream. Normal background levels should predominate thereafter until 26 June when another increase to high levels is expected due to recurrence.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled for 02-03 June due to persistent effects from a high speed stream. Quiet levels are expected for 04-06 June, followed by an increase to mostly unsettled levels on 07-08 June in response to a high speed stream from a coronal hole. Quiet conditions should return for 09-15 June, followed by another interval of unsettled levels on 16-17 June due to another recurrent high speed stream. Quiet levels should prevail for 18-24 June, followed by yet another increase to unsettled to active levels for 25-28 June in response to a recurrent coronal hole.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jun 01 1851 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010 Jun 01
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Jun 02 72 10 3
2010 Jun 03 72 8 3
2010 Jun 04 72 5 2
2010 Jun 05 72 5 2
2010 Jun 06 72 5 2
2010 Jun 07 72 8 3
2010 Jun 08 72 8 3
2010 Jun 09 70 5 2
2010 Jun 10 70 5 2
2010 Jun 11 70 5 2
2010 Jun 12 70 5 2
2010 Jun 13 70 5 2
2010 Jun 14 70 5 2
2010 Jun 15 70 5 2
2010 Jun 16 70 8 3
2010 Jun 17 70 8 3
2010 Jun 18 72 5 2
2010 Jun 19 75 5 2
2010 Jun 20 75 5 2
2010 Jun 21 75 5 2
2010 Jun 22 75 5 2
2010 Jun 23 75 5 2
2010 Jun 24 75 5 2
2010 Jun 25 75 12 3
2010 Jun 26 75 15 3
2010 Jun 27 72 15 3
2010 Jun 28 72 8 3
(NOAA)