Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2010 Aug 17 2051 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 - 15 August 2010
Solar activity was at very low levels from 09 - 13 August and at low levels from 14-15 August. New Region 1099 (N18, L=346, class/area Cro/070 on 14 August) formed on the disk on 13 August and was responsible for most of the activity late in the summary period. On 14 August, Region 1099 produced the most significant event of the period, a C4/Sf at 14/1005 UTC. Associated with this flare was a Type II radio sweep (estimated shock velocity of 406 km/s), a weak, short-lived 10 MeV proton event with a peak flux of 14 pfu at 14/1245 UTC observed by the GOES 13 spacecraft, and a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on STEREO-A COR2. To finish out the summary period, on 15 August, a disappearing solar filament (DSF) was observed with SOHO C2 imagery, at 15/0812 UTC and Region 1099 produced a C5/Sf at 15/1830 UTC. The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and stable.
The greater than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit exceeded threshold at 14/1230 UTC with a peak flux of 14 pfu at 14/1245 UTC. The proton event ended at 14/1410 UTC. This event was associated with the C4/Sf and subsequent CME activity on 14 August.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the entire summary period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during a majority of the summary period. On 09 August, an isolated period at active levels was observed at 09/0600-0900 UTC. On 10-11 August, mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of active to minor storm levels were observed due to effects from the 07 August CME. The geomagnetic field returned to mostly quiet levels for the remainder of the period, 12-16 August.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
18 August - 13 September 2010
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels during 18 - 24 August and at high levels from 25 August - 10 September. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period (11-13 September).
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet through most of the period. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is forecasted to become geoeffective from 22 - 24 August with quiet to unsettled conditions expected. Isolated active periods are possible on 23 August. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period (25 August - 13 September).
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 Aug 17 2051 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010 Aug 17
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Aug 18 85 5 2
2010 Aug 19 84 5 2
2010 Aug 20 84 5 2
2010 Aug 21 83 5 2
2010 Aug 22 83 5 2
2010 Aug 23 84 12 3
2010 Aug 24 85 8 3
2010 Aug 25 85 5 2
2010 Aug 26 85 5 2
2010 Aug 27 84 5 2
2010 Aug 28 82 5 2
2010 Aug 29 81 5 2
2010 Aug 30 80 5 2
2010 Aug 31 81 5 2
2010 Sep 01 83 5 2
2010 Sep 02 83 5 2
2010 Sep 03 85 5 2
2010 Sep 04 85 5 2
2010 Sep 05 85 5 2
2010 Sep 06 85 5 2
2010 Sep 07 85 5 2
2010 Sep 08 85 5 2
2010 Sep 09 85 5 2
2010 Sep 10 85 5 2
2010 Sep 11 85 5 2
2010 Sep 12 85 5 2
2010 Sep 13 85 5 2
(NOAA)
:Issued: 2010 Aug 17 2051 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 - 15 August 2010
Solar activity was at very low levels from 09 - 13 August and at low levels from 14-15 August. New Region 1099 (N18, L=346, class/area Cro/070 on 14 August) formed on the disk on 13 August and was responsible for most of the activity late in the summary period. On 14 August, Region 1099 produced the most significant event of the period, a C4/Sf at 14/1005 UTC. Associated with this flare was a Type II radio sweep (estimated shock velocity of 406 km/s), a weak, short-lived 10 MeV proton event with a peak flux of 14 pfu at 14/1245 UTC observed by the GOES 13 spacecraft, and a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on STEREO-A COR2. To finish out the summary period, on 15 August, a disappearing solar filament (DSF) was observed with SOHO C2 imagery, at 15/0812 UTC and Region 1099 produced a C5/Sf at 15/1830 UTC. The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and stable.
The greater than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit exceeded threshold at 14/1230 UTC with a peak flux of 14 pfu at 14/1245 UTC. The proton event ended at 14/1410 UTC. This event was associated with the C4/Sf and subsequent CME activity on 14 August.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the entire summary period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during a majority of the summary period. On 09 August, an isolated period at active levels was observed at 09/0600-0900 UTC. On 10-11 August, mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of active to minor storm levels were observed due to effects from the 07 August CME. The geomagnetic field returned to mostly quiet levels for the remainder of the period, 12-16 August.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
18 August - 13 September 2010
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels during 18 - 24 August and at high levels from 25 August - 10 September. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period (11-13 September).
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet through most of the period. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is forecasted to become geoeffective from 22 - 24 August with quiet to unsettled conditions expected. Isolated active periods are possible on 23 August. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period (25 August - 13 September).
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 Aug 17 2051 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010 Aug 17
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Aug 18 85 5 2
2010 Aug 19 84 5 2
2010 Aug 20 84 5 2
2010 Aug 21 83 5 2
2010 Aug 22 83 5 2
2010 Aug 23 84 12 3
2010 Aug 24 85 8 3
2010 Aug 25 85 5 2
2010 Aug 26 85 5 2
2010 Aug 27 84 5 2
2010 Aug 28 82 5 2
2010 Aug 29 81 5 2
2010 Aug 30 80 5 2
2010 Aug 31 81 5 2
2010 Sep 01 83 5 2
2010 Sep 02 83 5 2
2010 Sep 03 85 5 2
2010 Sep 04 85 5 2
2010 Sep 05 85 5 2
2010 Sep 06 85 5 2
2010 Sep 07 85 5 2
2010 Sep 08 85 5 2
2010 Sep 09 85 5 2
2010 Sep 10 85 5 2
2010 Sep 11 85 5 2
2010 Sep 12 85 5 2
2010 Sep 13 85 5 2
(NOAA)