Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts:Issued: 2010 Sep 14 2251 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 - 12 September 2010
Solar activity was as at very low to low levels during the period. Activity was very low during 07 September and 09-12 September, with occasional low to moderate B-class flares from Region 1105 ((N19, L=049, class/area Cai/150 on 06 September) and Region 1106 (S19,
L=209, class/area Cso/100 on 13 September). Activity was at low levels on 06 and 08 September, with two C-class flares from Region 1105, including a long-duration C3 flare at 08/2333 UTC. An 11-degree solar filament near N11E19 disappeared sometime between 07/1359-1439 UTC. A 20-degree filament eruption was observed near N25E25 on SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 11/0204 UTC. An associated partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on SOHO LACO C3 imagery. The majority of the CME was observed over the northeast limb.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels during 06-08 September. Normal levels were observed for the rest of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels during 06-09 September, with isolated active to major storm levels at high latitudes. The increased activity was due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind observations from ACE showed increased solar wind velocities (peak 427 km/s), increased IMF Bt (peak 9nT), and intervals of southward IMF Bz (minimum -6nT). Activity decreased to quiet levels for the rest of the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 September - 11 October 2010
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels from 15-20 September. High levels are expected from 21-29 September. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet on 15 September. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods on 16 September through early on 18 September. The increase in activity is due to the effects from the CME observed on 11 September and the effects of a weak recurrent CH HSS. Quiet levels are expected on 19 September. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for active periods, during 20-22 September due to a recurrent CH HSS. Quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 Sep 14 2251 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010 Sep 14
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Sep 15 82 5 2
2010 Sep 16 83 12 4
2010 Sep 17 83 12 4
2010 Sep 18 85 8 3
2010 Sep 19 85 5 2
2010 Sep 20 87 8 3
2010 Sep 21 87 12 4
2010 Sep 22 85 8 3
2010 Sep 23 85 5 2
2010 Sep 24 83 5 2
2010 Sep 25 82 5 2
2010 Sep 26 80 5 2
2010 Sep 27 78 5 2
2010 Sep 28 78 5 2
2010 Sep 29 78 5 2
2010 Sep 30 78 5 2
2010 Oct 01 78 5 2
2010 Oct 02 80 5 2
2010 Oct 03 80 5 2
2010 Oct 04 80 5 2
2010 Oct 05 81 5 2
2010 Oct 06 82 5 2
2010 Oct 07 82 5 2
2010 Oct 08 84 5 2
2010 Oct 09 84 5 2
2010 Oct 10 84 5 2
2010 Oct 11 85 5 2
(NOAA)