Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts:Issued: 2010 Sep 21 2151 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
13 - 19 September 2010
Solar activity was as at very low to low levels during the period. Activity was very low during 13 - 16 September with occasional B-class flares from Regions 1106 (S20, L=208, class/area Fao/110 on 14 September) and 1108 (S29, L=204, class/area Fho/420 on 19 September). Activity increased to low levels on 17 September by virtue of a C1/Sf flare at 17/0122 UTC from Region 1108. Activity decreased to very low levels for the rest of the period with isolated B-class flares from Regions 1106 and 1108.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to (briefly) moderate levels on 13 September. Normal flux levels were observed during the rest of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels during the period. The field was quiet at all latitudes on 13 September. Activity increased to quiet to unsettled levels on 14 September. Activity increased to active levels early on 15 September, then decreased to quiet levels at all latitudes after 15/0300 UTC. Activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during 16 - 17 September with active periods detected at high latitudes. Activity decreased to quiet levels during 18 - 19 September. ACE solar wind data indicated the unsettled to active levels during 14 - 15 September were associated with a solar sector boundary crossing (toward (-) to away (+)). The unsettled to active levels during 16 - 17 September were associated with a coronal hole high-speed wind stream (CH HSS). Solar wind changes observed during the CH HSS included increased velocities (peak 518 km/s at 17/0820 UTC), increased IMF Bt (peak 11 nT at 16/1428 UTC), and intermittent periods of southward IMF Bz (peak deflection -10 nT at 16/1653 UTC).
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 September - 18 October 2010
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels during the period. Low activity is expected during 22 September - 04 October with C-class flares likely from Region 1109 (N19, L = 072, class/area Hrx/030 on 21 September). Activity is expected to decrease to very low levels during 05 - 18 October.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels during 23 - 30 September. Normal to moderate flux levels are expected during the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels during 22 - 24 September due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during 25 - 26 September. Activity is expected to
increase to unsettled levels during 27 - 28 September due to CH HSS effects. Quiet levels are expected during 29 September - 02 October. Unsettled levels are expected during 03 - 05 October due to another round of CH HSS effects. Quiet levels are expected during 06 - 10
October. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels during 11 - 14 October due to recurrent solar sector boundary and CH HSS effects. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during 15 - 17 October. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels on 18 October as another recurrent CH HSS begins to disturb the field.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt:Issued: 2010 Sep 21 2151 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued: 2010 Sep 21
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Sep 22 88 18 4
2010 Sep 23 88 18 4
2010 Sep 24 88 12 3
2010 Sep 25 88 5 2
2010 Sep 26 88 5 2
2010 Sep 27 88 8 3
2010 Sep 28 86 10 3
2010 Sep 29 84 5 2
2010 Sep 30 82 5 2
2010 Oct 01 82 5 2
2010 Oct 02 82 5 2
2010 Oct 03 80 8 3
2010 Oct 04 78 8 3
2010 Oct 05 76 10 3
2010 Oct 06 76 5 2
2010 Oct 07 76 5 2
2010 Oct 08 78 5 2
2010 Oct 09 78 5 2
2010 Oct 10 80 5 2
2010 Oct 11 80 8 3
2010 Oct 12 80 8 3
2010 Oct 13 82 8 3
2010 Oct 14 82 8 3
2010 Oct 15 82 5 2
2010 Oct 16 82 5 2
2010 Oct 17 84 5 2
2010 Oct 18 86 8 3
(NOAA)