Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2010 Oct 19 2055 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
:Issued: 2010 Oct 19 2055 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 - 17 October 2010
Solar activity began the week at very low levels with no flare activity and just one sunspot group, Region 1112 (S20, L=208, class/area Eai/180 on 17 October), although there was a filament eruption late on 10 October which was associated with a slow CME early on 11 October. Activity increased slightly on 13-14 October with occasional B-class flares, mostly due to new Region 1113 (N18, L=141, class/area Hsx/160 on 17 October) which rotated onto the
disk. A slow CME was noted in the coronagraph images around mid-day on 14 October. Region 1112 began to grow, starting on 15 October, and started contributing to the B-level flare activity. As the region continued to grow, activity increased to moderate levels on 16 October due to an M2/1n at 1912 UTC which was associated with a type II radio sweep and a set of discrete radio bursts, including a 140 SFU tenflare at 1916 UTC. Activity decreased to low levels for 17 October as Region 1112 produced a few C-class flares and upper level B-class flares. A general increase in sunspot counts and background flux levels was noted during the last three days of the analysis interval.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit began the week at normal background levels. An increase began mid-day on 12 October, and moderate levels prevailed for 13-15 October accompanied by a brief interval of high flux levels on 13 October. Normal background levels resumed late on 15 October and continued through the remainder of the interval.
An initially quiet field became somewhat disturbed around 0600 UTC on 11 October with unsettled to active levels at mid-latitudes and some isolated major to severe storm levels at high latitudes. Quiet to unsettled levels, with some isolated active periods at high latitudes, prevailed for 12 October as the disturbance diminished. Quiet levels predominated for 13-16 October. A short-lived increase to unsettled to active levels, with some minor to major storm
periods at high latitudes, was observed on 17 October from 0300 UTC to 1500 UTC, after which conditions returned to quiet levels for the remainder of the day.
Solar wind data from the NASA ACE spacecraft indicated a possible CME passage on 11 October, mostly likely from the filament eruption and associated partial-halo CME that were
observed on 06 October. Density values reached a maximum of 45 p/cc at 0547 UTC and the IMF z-component Bz showed an extended negative interval from 0824-1805 UTC with peak negative values around -13 nT. An additional transient-like feature was observed at ACE on 17
October between 0111 UTC and 1150 UTC as Bz went through an extended negative period with peak negative values around -7 nT. A possible source for this transient may have been the slow CME observed on 14 October.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 October - 15 November 2010
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly at very low to low levels. The possibility for intervals of low level activity depends on the emergence of new sunspot groups. Recurrence would suggest a possible increase for 05-15 November as old Region 1112 will return at that time.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels during the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 20-22 October. An increase to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods is forecast for 23-25 October due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Quiet levels should prevail for 26-30 October. A small increase is possible due to a recurrent coronal hole for 31 October - 02 November. Quiet levels should prevail for the remainder of the outlook interval.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 Oct 19 2055 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
11 - 17 October 2010
Solar activity began the week at very low levels with no flare activity and just one sunspot group, Region 1112 (S20, L=208, class/area Eai/180 on 17 October), although there was a filament eruption late on 10 October which was associated with a slow CME early on 11 October. Activity increased slightly on 13-14 October with occasional B-class flares, mostly due to new Region 1113 (N18, L=141, class/area Hsx/160 on 17 October) which rotated onto the
disk. A slow CME was noted in the coronagraph images around mid-day on 14 October. Region 1112 began to grow, starting on 15 October, and started contributing to the B-level flare activity. As the region continued to grow, activity increased to moderate levels on 16 October due to an M2/1n at 1912 UTC which was associated with a type II radio sweep and a set of discrete radio bursts, including a 140 SFU tenflare at 1916 UTC. Activity decreased to low levels for 17 October as Region 1112 produced a few C-class flares and upper level B-class flares. A general increase in sunspot counts and background flux levels was noted during the last three days of the analysis interval.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit began the week at normal background levels. An increase began mid-day on 12 October, and moderate levels prevailed for 13-15 October accompanied by a brief interval of high flux levels on 13 October. Normal background levels resumed late on 15 October and continued through the remainder of the interval.
An initially quiet field became somewhat disturbed around 0600 UTC on 11 October with unsettled to active levels at mid-latitudes and some isolated major to severe storm levels at high latitudes. Quiet to unsettled levels, with some isolated active periods at high latitudes, prevailed for 12 October as the disturbance diminished. Quiet levels predominated for 13-16 October. A short-lived increase to unsettled to active levels, with some minor to major storm
periods at high latitudes, was observed on 17 October from 0300 UTC to 1500 UTC, after which conditions returned to quiet levels for the remainder of the day.
Solar wind data from the NASA ACE spacecraft indicated a possible CME passage on 11 October, mostly likely from the filament eruption and associated partial-halo CME that were
observed on 06 October. Density values reached a maximum of 45 p/cc at 0547 UTC and the IMF z-component Bz showed an extended negative interval from 0824-1805 UTC with peak negative values around -13 nT. An additional transient-like feature was observed at ACE on 17
October between 0111 UTC and 1150 UTC as Bz went through an extended negative period with peak negative values around -7 nT. A possible source for this transient may have been the slow CME observed on 14 October.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 October - 15 November 2010
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly at very low to low levels. The possibility for intervals of low level activity depends on the emergence of new sunspot groups. Recurrence would suggest a possible increase for 05-15 November as old Region 1112 will return at that time.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels during the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 20-22 October. An increase to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods is forecast for 23-25 October due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Quiet levels should prevail for 26-30 October. A small increase is possible due to a recurrent coronal hole for 31 October - 02 November. Quiet levels should prevail for the remainder of the outlook interval.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt:Issued: 2010 Oct 19 2055 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010 Oct 19
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Oct 20 90 8 3
2010 Oct 21 90 8 3
2010 Oct 22 90 5 2
2010 Oct 23 88 10 3
2010 Oct 24 86 12 3
2010 Oct 25 86 12 3
2010 Oct 26 85 5 2
2010 Oct 27 85 5 2
2010 Oct 28 85 5 2
2010 Oct 29 85 5 2
2010 Oct 30 80 7 2
2010 Oct 31 80 7 2
2010 Nov 01 75 8 3
2010 Nov 02 75 5 2
2010 Nov 03 75 5 2
2010 Nov 04 75 5 2
2010 Nov 05 80 5 2
2010 Nov 06 80 5 2
2010 Nov 07 80 5 2
2010 Nov 08 80 5 2
2010 Nov 09 80 5 2
2010 Nov 10 80 5 2
2010 Nov 11 80 5 2
2010 Nov 12 85 5 2
2010 Nov 13 85 5 2
2010 Nov 14 85 5 2
2010 Nov 15 85 5 2
(NOAA)
# Issued 2010 Oct 19
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Oct 20 90 8 3
2010 Oct 21 90 8 3
2010 Oct 22 90 5 2
2010 Oct 23 88 10 3
2010 Oct 24 86 12 3
2010 Oct 25 86 12 3
2010 Oct 26 85 5 2
2010 Oct 27 85 5 2
2010 Oct 28 85 5 2
2010 Oct 29 85 5 2
2010 Oct 30 80 7 2
2010 Oct 31 80 7 2
2010 Nov 01 75 8 3
2010 Nov 02 75 5 2
2010 Nov 03 75 5 2
2010 Nov 04 75 5 2
2010 Nov 05 80 5 2
2010 Nov 06 80 5 2
2010 Nov 07 80 5 2
2010 Nov 08 80 5 2
2010 Nov 09 80 5 2
2010 Nov 10 80 5 2
2010 Nov 11 80 5 2
2010 Nov 12 85 5 2
2010 Nov 13 85 5 2
2010 Nov 14 85 5 2
2010 Nov 15 85 5 2
(NOAA)