Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2011 Jan 18 1825 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
:Issued: 2011 Jan 18 1825 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 - 16 January 2011
Solar activity was at very low levels from 10-13 January. Rgn 1140 (N34, L=189, class/area Hsx/210 on 04 January) was responsible for the majority of the activity during this period, producing numerous B-class events. Activity increased to low levels during 14 - 15 January. Three C1 flares were observed from behind the NE limb during this 2-day period, all associated with returning Region 1138 (N13, L=324). Also associated with this recent activity were 4 CMEs, all of which were directed well away from Earth. Late in the period, old Region 1138 finally rotated onto the disk and was numbered 1147 (N24, L=339, class/area Cso/150 on 16 January).
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels from 10 - 13 and 16 January and at moderate levels during 14 - 15 January.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels during the period. Quiet to active conditions prevailed during 10 - 11 January due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Activity decreased to mostly quiet levels from 12 - 13 January. From 14 - 15 January, a second CH HSS became geoeffective and increased activity to quiet to active levels. During the summary period, solar wind velocities ranged from a low of about 450 km/s late on 13 January to a high of near 600 km/s late on 09 January. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field generally varied between +/- 5 nT through the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
19 January - 14 February 2011
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for low levels during the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be below threshold at the beginning of the forecast period. High levels are expected on 04-09 February. Flux is then expected to decrease below threshold through 14 February.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during 19-20 January due to a recurrent CH HSS. Recurrent coronal hole high speed streams are also expected on 02-04 February and on 09-10 February, bringing predominantly unsettled conditions during these time frames. Mostly quiet levels are expected otherwise.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt10 - 16 January 2011
Solar activity was at very low levels from 10-13 January. Rgn 1140 (N34, L=189, class/area Hsx/210 on 04 January) was responsible for the majority of the activity during this period, producing numerous B-class events. Activity increased to low levels during 14 - 15 January. Three C1 flares were observed from behind the NE limb during this 2-day period, all associated with returning Region 1138 (N13, L=324). Also associated with this recent activity were 4 CMEs, all of which were directed well away from Earth. Late in the period, old Region 1138 finally rotated onto the disk and was numbered 1147 (N24, L=339, class/area Cso/150 on 16 January).
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels from 10 - 13 and 16 January and at moderate levels during 14 - 15 January.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels during the period. Quiet to active conditions prevailed during 10 - 11 January due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Activity decreased to mostly quiet levels from 12 - 13 January. From 14 - 15 January, a second CH HSS became geoeffective and increased activity to quiet to active levels. During the summary period, solar wind velocities ranged from a low of about 450 km/s late on 13 January to a high of near 600 km/s late on 09 January. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field generally varied between +/- 5 nT through the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
19 January - 14 February 2011
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for low levels during the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be below threshold at the beginning of the forecast period. High levels are expected on 04-09 February. Flux is then expected to decrease below threshold through 14 February.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during 19-20 January due to a recurrent CH HSS. Recurrent coronal hole high speed streams are also expected on 02-04 February and on 09-10 February, bringing predominantly unsettled conditions during these time frames. Mostly quiet levels are expected otherwise.
:Issued: 2011 Jan 18 1825 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-01-18
# Issued 2011-01-18
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Jan 19 82 5 2
2011 Jan 20 84 5 2
2011 Jan 21 84 5 2
2011 Jan 22 84 5 2
2011 Jan 23 82 5 2
2011 Jan 24 82 5 2
2011 Jan 25 82 5 2
2011 Jan 26 82 5 2
2011 Jan 27 88 5 2
2011 Jan 28 88 5 2
2011 Jan 29 88 5 2
2011 Jan 30 88 5 2
2011 Jan 31 87 5 2
2011 Feb 01 85 5 2
2011 Feb 02 85 7 2
2011 Feb 03 84 7 2
2011 Feb 04 84 7 2
2011 Feb 05 83 5 2
2011 Feb 06 83 5 2
2011 Feb 07 82 5 2
2011 Feb 08 80 5 2
2011 Feb 09 80 5 2
2011 Feb 10 80 8 3
2011 Feb 11 80 5 2
2011 Feb 12 80 5 2
2011 Feb 13 80 5 2
2011 Feb 14 80 5 2
(NOAA)
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Jan 19 82 5 2
2011 Jan 20 84 5 2
2011 Jan 21 84 5 2
2011 Jan 22 84 5 2
2011 Jan 23 82 5 2
2011 Jan 24 82 5 2
2011 Jan 25 82 5 2
2011 Jan 26 82 5 2
2011 Jan 27 88 5 2
2011 Jan 28 88 5 2
2011 Jan 29 88 5 2
2011 Jan 30 88 5 2
2011 Jan 31 87 5 2
2011 Feb 01 85 5 2
2011 Feb 02 85 7 2
2011 Feb 03 84 7 2
2011 Feb 04 84 7 2
2011 Feb 05 83 5 2
2011 Feb 06 83 5 2
2011 Feb 07 82 5 2
2011 Feb 08 80 5 2
2011 Feb 09 80 5 2
2011 Feb 10 80 8 3
2011 Feb 11 80 5 2
2011 Feb 12 80 5 2
2011 Feb 13 80 5 2
2011 Feb 14 80 5 2
(NOAA)