Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2011 Feb 01 1755 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
24 - 30 January 2011
Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate during the summary period. Region 1149 (N17, L= 349, class/area Dso/250 on 26 January) provided the bulk of activity producing 5 C-class events and the largest, an M1.3 at 28/0103Z as the region rotated around the west limb. Associated with this event was a Type II Sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 732 km/s and a CME observed in LASCO C2 imagery off the NW limb at 28/0206Z. Due to the location of this CME, it was determined not to be Earth-directed. Earlier in the period, Region 1149 produced a C1.2 X-ray event at 27/1201Z with another Type II Sweep (901 km/s estimated SV). On 28 January, two new regions were numbered. Region 1150 (S21, L-182, class/area
Dao/050 on 30 January) rotated onto the disk while Region 1151 (N09, L-306, class/area Cro/020 on 28 January) emerged on the disk. Both regions were quiet and stable producing only low-level B-class activity. A 26 degree filament erupted on 29/1219Z visible in
SDO/AIA 193 imagery. An associated faint, partial-halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery at 30/1954Z and appeared to be Earth-directed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. However, a 10 MeV proton enhancement of 2.8 pfu was recorded at 28/1625Z associated with the M1.3 X-ray event on 28 January.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 24 - 26 and 28 January and normal levels on 27 and 29 - 30 January.
Geomagnetic field levels were predominately quiet the entire summary period. Solar wind speeds were fairly benign ranging from a high of 407 km/s at 24/0843Z to a low of 266 km/s at 30/1946Z The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much
beyond +/- 5 nT during the summary period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 February - 28 February 2011
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels through 08 February. A slight chance for M-class activity is possible from 09 - 22 February due to the return of old Region 1149 (N17, L= 349). Very low to low levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period (23 - 28 February).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels during 02 - 03 February, increasing to moderate to high levels for 04 - 09 February. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook
period (10 - 28 February).
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 02 - 04 February due to combined effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) and the 29 January CME. Isolated active to minor storm periods are possible 02 - 03 February. Predominately quiet levels will return from 05 - 08 February. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 09 - 11 February due to another CH HSS. Isolated active periods are possible on 10 February. Predominately quiet conditions will prevail from 12 - 27 February. Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, are expected by 28 February due to another CH HSS.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Feb 01 1755 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-02-01
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Feb 02 82 12 4
2011 Feb 03 82 15 5
2011 Feb 04 84 8 3
2011 Feb 05 84 5 2
2011 Feb 06 84 5 2
2011 Feb 07 84 5 2
2011 Feb 08 84 5 2
2011 Feb 09 84 5 2
2011 Feb 10 86 8 3
2011 Feb 11 88 10 3
2011 Feb 12 88 8 3
2011 Feb 13 88 5 2
2011 Feb 14 88 5 2
2011 Feb 15 88 5 2
2011 Feb 16 88 5 2
2011 Feb 17 88 5 2
2011 Feb 18 88 5 2
2011 Feb 19 88 5 2
2011 Feb 20 88 5 2
2011 Feb 21 86 5 2
2011 Feb 22 84 5 2
2011 Feb 23 82 5 2
2011 Feb 24 80 5 2
2011 Feb 25 80 5 2
2011 Feb 26 80 5 2
2011 Feb 27 80 5 2
2011 Feb 28 80 10 3
(NOAA)
:Issued: 2011 Feb 01 1755 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
24 - 30 January 2011
Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate during the summary period. Region 1149 (N17, L= 349, class/area Dso/250 on 26 January) provided the bulk of activity producing 5 C-class events and the largest, an M1.3 at 28/0103Z as the region rotated around the west limb. Associated with this event was a Type II Sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 732 km/s and a CME observed in LASCO C2 imagery off the NW limb at 28/0206Z. Due to the location of this CME, it was determined not to be Earth-directed. Earlier in the period, Region 1149 produced a C1.2 X-ray event at 27/1201Z with another Type II Sweep (901 km/s estimated SV). On 28 January, two new regions were numbered. Region 1150 (S21, L-182, class/area
Dao/050 on 30 January) rotated onto the disk while Region 1151 (N09, L-306, class/area Cro/020 on 28 January) emerged on the disk. Both regions were quiet and stable producing only low-level B-class activity. A 26 degree filament erupted on 29/1219Z visible in
SDO/AIA 193 imagery. An associated faint, partial-halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery at 30/1954Z and appeared to be Earth-directed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. However, a 10 MeV proton enhancement of 2.8 pfu was recorded at 28/1625Z associated with the M1.3 X-ray event on 28 January.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 24 - 26 and 28 January and normal levels on 27 and 29 - 30 January.
Geomagnetic field levels were predominately quiet the entire summary period. Solar wind speeds were fairly benign ranging from a high of 407 km/s at 24/0843Z to a low of 266 km/s at 30/1946Z The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much
beyond +/- 5 nT during the summary period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 February - 28 February 2011
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels through 08 February. A slight chance for M-class activity is possible from 09 - 22 February due to the return of old Region 1149 (N17, L= 349). Very low to low levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period (23 - 28 February).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels during 02 - 03 February, increasing to moderate to high levels for 04 - 09 February. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook
period (10 - 28 February).
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 02 - 04 February due to combined effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) and the 29 January CME. Isolated active to minor storm periods are possible 02 - 03 February. Predominately quiet levels will return from 05 - 08 February. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 09 - 11 February due to another CH HSS. Isolated active periods are possible on 10 February. Predominately quiet conditions will prevail from 12 - 27 February. Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, are expected by 28 February due to another CH HSS.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Feb 01 1755 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-02-01
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Feb 02 82 12 4
2011 Feb 03 82 15 5
2011 Feb 04 84 8 3
2011 Feb 05 84 5 2
2011 Feb 06 84 5 2
2011 Feb 07 84 5 2
2011 Feb 08 84 5 2
2011 Feb 09 84 5 2
2011 Feb 10 86 8 3
2011 Feb 11 88 10 3
2011 Feb 12 88 8 3
2011 Feb 13 88 5 2
2011 Feb 14 88 5 2
2011 Feb 15 88 5 2
2011 Feb 16 88 5 2
2011 Feb 17 88 5 2
2011 Feb 18 88 5 2
2011 Feb 19 88 5 2
2011 Feb 20 88 5 2
2011 Feb 21 86 5 2
2011 Feb 22 84 5 2
2011 Feb 23 82 5 2
2011 Feb 24 80 5 2
2011 Feb 25 80 5 2
2011 Feb 26 80 5 2
2011 Feb 27 80 5 2
2011 Feb 28 80 10 3
(NOAA)