Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2011 Mar 01 2122 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
:Issued: 2011 Mar 01 2122 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
21 - 27 February 2011
Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels during the period. Numerous C-class flares were observed on 21 February. The largest of these was a C7 x-ray event at 21/1012 UTC from Region 1158 (S21, L=036, Ekc/600 on 15 February). Activity decreased to very low levels on 22 February, with a few B-class events from Region 1161 (N11, L=331, Ekc/260 on 20 February). Activity increased to low levels as Region 1161 produced a C1 x-ray event at 23/1223 UTC. Activity increased further to moderate levels when Region 1163 (N17, L=177, Dai/120 on 25 February) was numbered on 24 February and produced an M3 event at 24/0735 UTC. Associated with this event was a Type IV Radio Sweep, a 180 sfu Tenflare, and a Type II Sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 1283 km/s. Activity decreased to low levels on 25 February with three C1 events observed during the day. Region 1164 (N28, L=162, Hkx/250 on 25 ebruary) was numbered on 25 February. A 24-degree filament (centered near N34E40) was observed lifting off the disk at 25/0637 UTC, as viewed on SDO/AIA171 imagery. Activity remained at low levels with a few C-class events from Region 1164. New Region 1165 (S22, L=181, class/area Bxo/020 on 26 February) emerged on the disk on as a simple bi-polar spot group. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 21-22 and 24 February. The flux was at moderate levels on 23 February and 26-27 February.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels during the period. Activity was at predominantly quiet levels, with isolated active periods observed at high latitudes on 21 February. his elevated activity was due to residual effects from the CMEs associated with the M and X-class events of 13-15 February. During
the period, solar wind velocities reached a peak of 444 km/s at 22/1158 UTC. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT during the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 March - 28 March 2011
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low to moderate levels through the forecast period. A slight chance for high-level activity is possible from 05-22 March due to the return of old Regions 1158 (S21, L=31), 1161 (N11, L=334) and 1162 (N17, L=338).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 02 March. High levels are expected from 03-13 March due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). A decrease to normal to moderate levels is expected through 18 March. Another increase to high levels is expected from 18-23 March due to a second CH HSS. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for isolated minor storm periods from 02-05 March due to a recurrent CH HSS. Mostly quiet levels are expected from 06-07 March. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 08-09 March due to another CH HSS. Mostly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Mar 01 2122 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-03-01
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Mar 02 95 15 4
2011 Mar 03 98 15 4
2011 Mar 04 98 12 3
2011 Mar 05 98 10 3
2011 Mar 06 100 5 2
2011 Mar 07 100 5 2
2011 Mar 08 100 8 3
2011 Mar 09 98 8 3
2011 Mar 10 100 7 2
2011 Mar 11 105 5 2
2011 Mar 12 105 5 2
2011 Mar 13 110 7 2
2011 Mar 14 110 7 2
2011 Mar 15 110 5 2
2011 Mar 16 110 5 2
2011 Mar 17 105 5 2
2011 Mar 18 105 5 2
2011 Mar 19 100 5 2
2011 Mar 20 95 5 2
2011 Mar 21 95 5 2
2011 Mar 22 95 5 2
2011 Mar 23 95 5 2
2011 Mar 24 95 5 2
2011 Mar 25 90 5 2
2011 Mar 26 90 5 2
2011 Mar 27 90 5 2
2011 Mar 28 90 5 2
(NOAA)
21 - 27 February 2011
Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels during the period. Numerous C-class flares were observed on 21 February. The largest of these was a C7 x-ray event at 21/1012 UTC from Region 1158 (S21, L=036, Ekc/600 on 15 February). Activity decreased to very low levels on 22 February, with a few B-class events from Region 1161 (N11, L=331, Ekc/260 on 20 February). Activity increased to low levels as Region 1161 produced a C1 x-ray event at 23/1223 UTC. Activity increased further to moderate levels when Region 1163 (N17, L=177, Dai/120 on 25 February) was numbered on 24 February and produced an M3 event at 24/0735 UTC. Associated with this event was a Type IV Radio Sweep, a 180 sfu Tenflare, and a Type II Sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 1283 km/s. Activity decreased to low levels on 25 February with three C1 events observed during the day. Region 1164 (N28, L=162, Hkx/250 on 25 ebruary) was numbered on 25 February. A 24-degree filament (centered near N34E40) was observed lifting off the disk at 25/0637 UTC, as viewed on SDO/AIA171 imagery. Activity remained at low levels with a few C-class events from Region 1164. New Region 1165 (S22, L=181, class/area Bxo/020 on 26 February) emerged on the disk on as a simple bi-polar spot group. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 21-22 and 24 February. The flux was at moderate levels on 23 February and 26-27 February.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels during the period. Activity was at predominantly quiet levels, with isolated active periods observed at high latitudes on 21 February. his elevated activity was due to residual effects from the CMEs associated with the M and X-class events of 13-15 February. During
the period, solar wind velocities reached a peak of 444 km/s at 22/1158 UTC. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT during the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 March - 28 March 2011
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low to moderate levels through the forecast period. A slight chance for high-level activity is possible from 05-22 March due to the return of old Regions 1158 (S21, L=31), 1161 (N11, L=334) and 1162 (N17, L=338).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 02 March. High levels are expected from 03-13 March due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). A decrease to normal to moderate levels is expected through 18 March. Another increase to high levels is expected from 18-23 March due to a second CH HSS. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for isolated minor storm periods from 02-05 March due to a recurrent CH HSS. Mostly quiet levels are expected from 06-07 March. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 08-09 March due to another CH HSS. Mostly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Mar 01 2122 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-03-01
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Mar 02 95 15 4
2011 Mar 03 98 15 4
2011 Mar 04 98 12 3
2011 Mar 05 98 10 3
2011 Mar 06 100 5 2
2011 Mar 07 100 5 2
2011 Mar 08 100 8 3
2011 Mar 09 98 8 3
2011 Mar 10 100 7 2
2011 Mar 11 105 5 2
2011 Mar 12 105 5 2
2011 Mar 13 110 7 2
2011 Mar 14 110 7 2
2011 Mar 15 110 5 2
2011 Mar 16 110 5 2
2011 Mar 17 105 5 2
2011 Mar 18 105 5 2
2011 Mar 19 100 5 2
2011 Mar 20 95 5 2
2011 Mar 21 95 5 2
2011 Mar 22 95 5 2
2011 Mar 23 95 5 2
2011 Mar 24 95 5 2
2011 Mar 25 90 5 2
2011 Mar 26 90 5 2
2011 Mar 27 90 5 2
2011 Mar 28 90 5 2
(NOAA)