Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2011 Jul 12 1959 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
:Issued: 2011 Jul 12 1959 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 - 10 July 2011
Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period. Solar activity began at very low levels through 06 July. On 06 July, a 23 degree long filament, centered near N25W60, was observed lifting off. An associated CME (573 km/s plane-of-sky speed) was observed, but was not Earth-directed. Low levels returned on 07 July when Region 1243 (N15, L=353, class/area Dai/100 on 06 July) produced a C1/Sf at 07/0242 UTC. Four C-class flares were observed on 08 July, the largest a C3/1n at 08/1331 UTC from Region 1247 (S18, L=269, class/area Dai/040 on 10 July). There was a long duration B4 x-ray event at 09/0028Z UTC from Region 1247. Associated with this event was a filament eruption located near Region 1247 that produced an asymmetric, partial-halo CME first visible on LASCO C2 imagery at 09/0125 UTC. Activity returned to very low levels for the remainder of the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 04 July. Flux levels increased to moderate on 05 - 06 July and further increased to high levels on 07 - 08 July. The period ended with flux at moderate levels.
Geomagnetic activity ranged from quiet to active levels during the period, with an isolated minor storm period observed early on 05 July due to a nighttime substorm. From 04 - 08 July, activity was primarily at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods observed on 05 and 06 July. An increase to quiet to active levels occurred on 09 - 10 July due to the onset of another CH HSS.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 July - 08 August 2011
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels during the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels from 12 - 14 July due to enhanced wind speeds from the currently geoeffective CH HSS. Normal levels are expected to return from 15 - 19 July before increasing to moderate to high flux levels again 20 - 27 July after an anticipated period of elevated solar wind speeds associated a second recurrent CH. Flux values should return to normal levels 28 July - 02 August, before another brief period of moderate to high levels on 3 - 4 August. Normal levels are expected to prevail for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 13 July due to CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active conditions with the chance for a minor storm is expected to begin on 14 July and persist for a day or two due to the anticipated arrival of the CME from 1103 UTC on 11 July. Mostly quiet conditions should return 16 - 17 July. An increase in activity ranging from quiet to active levels is forecast for 18 - 23 July due to another geoeffective HSS from a recurrent negative polarity CH. Conditions are forecast to be mostly quiet from 24 July - 03 August, with the exception of more CH HSS effects expected 27 - 29 July and 31 July - 02 August. Each of these events should each produce mostly unsettled and possibly even brief active conditions. Mostly quiet conditions are forecast to return on 03 August, before a SSBC from negative to positive polarity is expected on 04 August, when mostly unsettled conditions should occur in advance of yet another CH HSS that is expected to produce mostly unsettled conditions for the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jul 12 1959 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-07-12
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Jul 13 92 12 3
2011 Jul 14 94 15 4
2011 Jul 15 94 7 2
2011 Jul 16 94 5 2
2011 Jul 17 94 5 2
2011 Jul 18 92 8 3
2011 Jul 19 90 10 3
2011 Jul 20 92 10 3
2011 Jul 21 92 10 3
2011 Jul 22 90 8 3
2011 Jul 23 90 8 3
2011 Jul 24 90 5 2
2011 Jul 25 88 5 2
2011 Jul 26 88 5 2
2011 Jul 27 88 8 3
2011 Jul 28 86 10 3
2011 Jul 29 88 8 3
2011 Jul 30 88 8 3
2011 Jul 31 85 8 3
2011 Aug 01 85 10 3
2011 Aug 02 85 8 3
2011 Aug 03 85 5 2
2011 Aug 04 85 8 3
2011 Aug 05 85 12 3
2011 Aug 06 90 12 3
2011 Aug 07 90 12 3
2011 Aug 08 90 8 3
(NOAA)
Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period. Solar activity began at very low levels through 06 July. On 06 July, a 23 degree long filament, centered near N25W60, was observed lifting off. An associated CME (573 km/s plane-of-sky speed) was observed, but was not Earth-directed. Low levels returned on 07 July when Region 1243 (N15, L=353, class/area Dai/100 on 06 July) produced a C1/Sf at 07/0242 UTC. Four C-class flares were observed on 08 July, the largest a C3/1n at 08/1331 UTC from Region 1247 (S18, L=269, class/area Dai/040 on 10 July). There was a long duration B4 x-ray event at 09/0028Z UTC from Region 1247. Associated with this event was a filament eruption located near Region 1247 that produced an asymmetric, partial-halo CME first visible on LASCO C2 imagery at 09/0125 UTC. Activity returned to very low levels for the remainder of the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 04 July. Flux levels increased to moderate on 05 - 06 July and further increased to high levels on 07 - 08 July. The period ended with flux at moderate levels.
Geomagnetic activity ranged from quiet to active levels during the period, with an isolated minor storm period observed early on 05 July due to a nighttime substorm. From 04 - 08 July, activity was primarily at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods observed on 05 and 06 July. An increase to quiet to active levels occurred on 09 - 10 July due to the onset of another CH HSS.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 July - 08 August 2011
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels during the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels from 12 - 14 July due to enhanced wind speeds from the currently geoeffective CH HSS. Normal levels are expected to return from 15 - 19 July before increasing to moderate to high flux levels again 20 - 27 July after an anticipated period of elevated solar wind speeds associated a second recurrent CH. Flux values should return to normal levels 28 July - 02 August, before another brief period of moderate to high levels on 3 - 4 August. Normal levels are expected to prevail for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 13 July due to CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active conditions with the chance for a minor storm is expected to begin on 14 July and persist for a day or two due to the anticipated arrival of the CME from 1103 UTC on 11 July. Mostly quiet conditions should return 16 - 17 July. An increase in activity ranging from quiet to active levels is forecast for 18 - 23 July due to another geoeffective HSS from a recurrent negative polarity CH. Conditions are forecast to be mostly quiet from 24 July - 03 August, with the exception of more CH HSS effects expected 27 - 29 July and 31 July - 02 August. Each of these events should each produce mostly unsettled and possibly even brief active conditions. Mostly quiet conditions are forecast to return on 03 August, before a SSBC from negative to positive polarity is expected on 04 August, when mostly unsettled conditions should occur in advance of yet another CH HSS that is expected to produce mostly unsettled conditions for the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jul 12 1959 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-07-12
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Jul 13 92 12 3
2011 Jul 14 94 15 4
2011 Jul 15 94 7 2
2011 Jul 16 94 5 2
2011 Jul 17 94 5 2
2011 Jul 18 92 8 3
2011 Jul 19 90 10 3
2011 Jul 20 92 10 3
2011 Jul 21 92 10 3
2011 Jul 22 90 8 3
2011 Jul 23 90 8 3
2011 Jul 24 90 5 2
2011 Jul 25 88 5 2
2011 Jul 26 88 5 2
2011 Jul 27 88 8 3
2011 Jul 28 86 10 3
2011 Jul 29 88 8 3
2011 Jul 30 88 8 3
2011 Jul 31 85 8 3
2011 Aug 01 85 10 3
2011 Aug 02 85 8 3
2011 Aug 03 85 5 2
2011 Aug 04 85 8 3
2011 Aug 05 85 12 3
2011 Aug 06 90 12 3
2011 Aug 07 90 12 3
2011 Aug 08 90 8 3
(NOAA)