Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2011 Sep 06 2004 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 August - 04 September 2011
:Issued: 2011 Sep 06 2004 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 August - 04 September 2011
Solar activity began the week at low levels with 27 C-class flares between 09 August - 03 September and ended at moderate levels with an M3 flare at 04/1145 UTC from Region 1286 (N20, L=304, class/area Dso/080 on 03 September). The M3 event was associated with a partial-halo coronal mass ejection which was directed away from the west limb. Although Region 1282 (N25, L=300, class/area Eso/170) did not produce any significant activity during the period, it did develop a delta magnetic configuration on 03 September. Region 1283 (N14, L=223, class/area Dsi/220) developed into the largest spot group during the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was atnormal levels.
Geomagnetic field activity began the week at generally quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active and minor storm periods at high latitudes due to a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Activity decreased to mostly quiet levels for 30 August - 02 September. A tivity increased to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated acti e periods at high latitudes for 03 - 04 September. An isolated major storm period occurred at high latitudes during 03/0900 - 1200 UTC. Solar wind data indicated a solar sector boundary crossing on 02 September at about 1000 UTC, and a co-rotating interaction region on 03 September at about 0100 UTC followed by a negative polarity CH HSS.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 September - 03 October 2011
Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class activity likely and a slight chance for X-class activity through 11 September when Region 1283 rotates off the disk. A decrease to very low to low levels is expected from 12 - 17 September. An increase to low to moderate levels is expected as old Regions 1286 and 1283 return and transit the disk from 18 September through the remainder of the forecast period.
A slight chance for proton events is expected at geosynchronous orbit until 12 September.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels 07 - 08 September, followed by normal to moderate levels for 09 - 12 September. High levels are expected 13 - 14 September, followed by another decrease to normal to moderate levels for 15 - 8 September. High levels resume 29 - 30 September. Normal to moderate levels are expected 01 - 03 October.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through 09 September. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels 10 - 13 September with the arrival of a coronal mass ejection coupled with a CH HSS. Mostly quiet levels will prevail from 14 - 29 September. An increase to unsettled is expected 30 September - 01 October due to another recurrent CH HSS. Quiet levels will predominate for 02 - 03 October.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Sep 06 2004 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-09-06
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Sep 07 115 5 2
2011 Sep 08 110 5 2
2011 Sep 09 105 5 2
2011 Sep 10 100 18 4
2011 Sep 11 100 15 3
2011 Sep 12 100 10 3
2011 Sep 13 100 8 3
2011 Sep 14 100 5 2
2011 Sep 15 100 5 2
2011 Sep 16 103 5 2
2011 Sep 17 103 5 2
2011 Sep 18 105 7 2
2011 Sep 19 105 7 2
2011 Sep 20 105 5 2
2011 Sep 21 105 5 2
2011 Sep 22 105 5 2
2011 Sep 23 103 5 2
2011 Sep 24 100 7 2
2011 Sep 25 100 7 2
2011 Sep 26 100 5 2
2011 Sep 27 105 5 2
2011 Sep 28 110 5 2
2011 Sep 29 110 5 2
2011 Sep 30 110 10 3
2011 Oct 01 110 8 3
2011 Oct 02 110 5 2
2011 Oct 03 110 5 2
(NOAA)
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was atnormal levels.
Geomagnetic field activity began the week at generally quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active and minor storm periods at high latitudes due to a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Activity decreased to mostly quiet levels for 30 August - 02 September. A tivity increased to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated acti e periods at high latitudes for 03 - 04 September. An isolated major storm period occurred at high latitudes during 03/0900 - 1200 UTC. Solar wind data indicated a solar sector boundary crossing on 02 September at about 1000 UTC, and a co-rotating interaction region on 03 September at about 0100 UTC followed by a negative polarity CH HSS.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 September - 03 October 2011
Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class activity likely and a slight chance for X-class activity through 11 September when Region 1283 rotates off the disk. A decrease to very low to low levels is expected from 12 - 17 September. An increase to low to moderate levels is expected as old Regions 1286 and 1283 return and transit the disk from 18 September through the remainder of the forecast period.
A slight chance for proton events is expected at geosynchronous orbit until 12 September.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels 07 - 08 September, followed by normal to moderate levels for 09 - 12 September. High levels are expected 13 - 14 September, followed by another decrease to normal to moderate levels for 15 - 8 September. High levels resume 29 - 30 September. Normal to moderate levels are expected 01 - 03 October.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through 09 September. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels 10 - 13 September with the arrival of a coronal mass ejection coupled with a CH HSS. Mostly quiet levels will prevail from 14 - 29 September. An increase to unsettled is expected 30 September - 01 October due to another recurrent CH HSS. Quiet levels will predominate for 02 - 03 October.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Sep 06 2004 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-09-06
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Sep 07 115 5 2
2011 Sep 08 110 5 2
2011 Sep 09 105 5 2
2011 Sep 10 100 18 4
2011 Sep 11 100 15 3
2011 Sep 12 100 10 3
2011 Sep 13 100 8 3
2011 Sep 14 100 5 2
2011 Sep 15 100 5 2
2011 Sep 16 103 5 2
2011 Sep 17 103 5 2
2011 Sep 18 105 7 2
2011 Sep 19 105 7 2
2011 Sep 20 105 5 2
2011 Sep 21 105 5 2
2011 Sep 22 105 5 2
2011 Sep 23 103 5 2
2011 Sep 24 100 7 2
2011 Sep 25 100 7 2
2011 Sep 26 100 5 2
2011 Sep 27 105 5 2
2011 Sep 28 110 5 2
2011 Sep 29 110 5 2
2011 Sep 30 110 10 3
2011 Oct 01 110 8 3
2011 Oct 02 110 5 2
2011 Oct 03 110 5 2
(NOAA)