Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2012 Jan 24 2144 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
:Issued: 2012 Jan 24 2144 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 - 22 January 2012
Solar activity reached moderate levels as Regions 1401 (N18, L=213, class/area Eki/540 on 19 January) and 1402 (N28, L=214, class/area Eko/630 on 17 January) both produced M-class events. Region 1401 produced an M1/1n on 17/0453Z and an M1/1n on 18/1912Z. Region 1402 followed with an M3/2n on 19/1605Z. The 19 January event was associated with and Type IV radio emission and a full halo CME. Type II emissions were detected on 19/1252Z and 19/1933Z with speeds of 933 km/s and 694 km/s respectively. Partial halo CMEs were also observed on 16 and 18 January. Activity decreased to very low levels late on 19 January. Isolated low-level C-class flares were observed on 20 - 22 January. Plage Region 1396 (N27, L=287, class/area Dao/110 on 17 January) produced a C1 flare at 20/2112Z associated with a Type II radio sweep (945 km/s) and a non-Earth-directed CME. Region 1402 produced a long-duration C1 flare at 20/2333Z associated with a weak Type IV radio sweep.
An enhancement of the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began around 20/0800Z and continued through the end of the period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels the entire period.
Geomagnetic field conditions ranged from quiet to unsettled levels, with a brief excursion into active-major storm levels at high latitudes on 22 January. Field conditions were predominately quiet from 17-21 January. On 22 January, an interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft at approximately 22/0514Z, likely indicating the arrival of the full-halo CME observed on 19 January in LASCO imagery. This was followed by a geomagnetic sudden impulse (SI) at 22/0614Z (31 nT observed by the boulder magnetometer). Field activity increased to unsettled to major storm levels at high latitudes following the SI.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 January - 20 February 2012
Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares likely until Regions 1401 and 1402 depart on 28 January. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the remained of the period.
Protons greater than than 10 MeV are expected to remain above event threshold from 25 - 26 January. A return to background levels is expected for the remainer of the period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels the entire period.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels on 25 January as effects from the CME from 23 January wane. Quiet levels are expected on 26 January. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 27 January as a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) becomes geoeffecitve. A return to quiet levels is expected until 02 - 03 February, with quiet to unsettled levels expected as another CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Predominantly quiet levels are expected from 04-08 February. Another CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective with quiet to unsettled levels expected from 09-10 February. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jan 24 2144 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2012-01-24
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2012 Jan 25 145 20 5
2012 Jan 26 145 5 2
2012 Jan 27 145 8 3
2012 Jan 28 140 5 2
2012 Jan 29 140 5 2
2012 Jan 30 135 5 2
2012 Jan 31 135 5 2
2012 Feb 01 135 5 2
2012 Feb 02 135 8 3
2012 Feb 03 140 8 3
2012 Feb 04 140 5 2
2012 Feb 05 140 5 2
2012 Feb 06 140 5 2
2012 Feb 07 140 5 2
2012 Feb 08 140 5 2
2012 Feb 09 145 8 3
2012 Feb 10 150 8 3
2012 Feb 11 155 5 2
2012 Feb 12 155 8 3
2012 Feb 13 155 8 3
2012 Feb 14 150 5 2
2012 Feb 15 150 5 2
2012 Feb 16 150 5 2
2012 Feb 17 150 5 2
2012 Feb 18 150 5 2
2012 Feb 19 150 5 2
2012 Feb 20 145 5 2
(NOAA)
Solar activity reached moderate levels as Regions 1401 (N18, L=213, class/area Eki/540 on 19 January) and 1402 (N28, L=214, class/area Eko/630 on 17 January) both produced M-class events. Region 1401 produced an M1/1n on 17/0453Z and an M1/1n on 18/1912Z. Region 1402 followed with an M3/2n on 19/1605Z. The 19 January event was associated with and Type IV radio emission and a full halo CME. Type II emissions were detected on 19/1252Z and 19/1933Z with speeds of 933 km/s and 694 km/s respectively. Partial halo CMEs were also observed on 16 and 18 January. Activity decreased to very low levels late on 19 January. Isolated low-level C-class flares were observed on 20 - 22 January. Plage Region 1396 (N27, L=287, class/area Dao/110 on 17 January) produced a C1 flare at 20/2112Z associated with a Type II radio sweep (945 km/s) and a non-Earth-directed CME. Region 1402 produced a long-duration C1 flare at 20/2333Z associated with a weak Type IV radio sweep.
An enhancement of the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began around 20/0800Z and continued through the end of the period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels the entire period.
Geomagnetic field conditions ranged from quiet to unsettled levels, with a brief excursion into active-major storm levels at high latitudes on 22 January. Field conditions were predominately quiet from 17-21 January. On 22 January, an interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft at approximately 22/0514Z, likely indicating the arrival of the full-halo CME observed on 19 January in LASCO imagery. This was followed by a geomagnetic sudden impulse (SI) at 22/0614Z (31 nT observed by the boulder magnetometer). Field activity increased to unsettled to major storm levels at high latitudes following the SI.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 January - 20 February 2012
Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares likely until Regions 1401 and 1402 depart on 28 January. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the remained of the period.
Protons greater than than 10 MeV are expected to remain above event threshold from 25 - 26 January. A return to background levels is expected for the remainer of the period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels the entire period.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels on 25 January as effects from the CME from 23 January wane. Quiet levels are expected on 26 January. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 27 January as a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) becomes geoeffecitve. A return to quiet levels is expected until 02 - 03 February, with quiet to unsettled levels expected as another CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Predominantly quiet levels are expected from 04-08 February. Another CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective with quiet to unsettled levels expected from 09-10 February. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt:Issued: 2012 Jan 24 2144 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2012-01-24
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2012 Jan 25 145 20 5
2012 Jan 26 145 5 2
2012 Jan 27 145 8 3
2012 Jan 28 140 5 2
2012 Jan 29 140 5 2
2012 Jan 30 135 5 2
2012 Jan 31 135 5 2
2012 Feb 01 135 5 2
2012 Feb 02 135 8 3
2012 Feb 03 140 8 3
2012 Feb 04 140 5 2
2012 Feb 05 140 5 2
2012 Feb 06 140 5 2
2012 Feb 07 140 5 2
2012 Feb 08 140 5 2
2012 Feb 09 145 8 3
2012 Feb 10 150 8 3
2012 Feb 11 155 5 2
2012 Feb 12 155 8 3
2012 Feb 13 155 8 3
2012 Feb 14 150 5 2
2012 Feb 15 150 5 2
2012 Feb 16 150 5 2
2012 Feb 17 150 5 2
2012 Feb 18 150 5 2
2012 Feb 19 150 5 2
2012 Feb 20 145 5 2
(NOAA)