Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2012 May 07 1445 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 April - 06 May 2012
Solar activity was moderate. The week was dominated by low level C-class x-ray activity from Regions 1469 (S23, L=335, class/area Eso/140 on 02 May) and 1471 (S21, L=276, class/area=Eho/320 on 02 May) until 05 May. Then, Region 1476 (N10, L=188, class/are=Fhi/760 on 06 May) rotated onto the visible disk and produced three impulsive M-class flares in approximately 12 hours. The largest of these was an M1/Sn at 05/1323Z. Only one M1/1n flare was observed the following day, also from Region 1476, at 06/1747Z.
Several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the period, although only three were deemed to be potentially earth-directed. The first of the three occurred on 04 May and was observed in STEREO-Ahead COR2 coronagraph imagery around 0309Z. The second was associated with a C1 flare from Region 1469 at 04/2356Z. The third was associated with a long duration C2/Sf flare from Region 1470 (S15, L=286, class/area=Cro/30 on 05 May) at 05/0639Z and evidence of the eruption was observed in SDO AIA imagery at 05/0600 UTC. No significant radio emissions were observed with any of the CMEs.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels (>1000 pfu) for the first three days (30 April-02 May). After a return to normal backround levels on 03-04 May, flux reached moderate levels on 05 and 06 May.
Geomagnetic field activity was at predominantly quiet levels all week. Unsettled levels occurred late on 02 May into early 03 May associated with a prolonged period of negative Bz and again late on 03 May in response to a solar sector boundary change. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft ranged from 300-400 km/s throughout the week.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 May - 02 June 2012
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate as Region 1476 makes its way across the visible solar disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 11-14 May and again on 23-29 May in response to recurrent coronal hole high speed wind streams.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to begin at unsettled levels for 07-08 May in response to a solar sector boundary crossing and CME arrival. The arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream will bring active levels on 09-11 May. After a brief return to quiet levels, unsettled conditions are expected in response to another coronal hole high speed stream on 14-15 May. Mostly quiet levels are then forecast until 19 May when unsettled to active conditions are expected to accompany the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream. Active levels will persisit through 23 May followed by a return to quiet conditions through the end of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2012 May 07 1445 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2012-05-07
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2012 May 07 115 7 2
2012 May 08 115 7 2
2012 May 09 115 12 3
2012 May 10 115 15 5
2012 May 11 115 12 3
2012 May 12 115 5 2
2012 May 13 115 5 2
2012 May 14 115 8 3
2012 May 15 120 8 3
2012 May 16 130 5 2
2012 May 17 140 8 3
2012 May 18 145 5 2
2012 May 19 145 8 3
2012 May 20 140 10 4
2012 May 21 135 15 5
2012 May 22 125 15 5
2012 May 23 120 15 5
2012 May 24 120 8 3
2012 May 25 115 5 2
2012 May 26 115 5 2
2012 May 27 115 5 2
2012 May 28 115 5 2
2012 May 29 115 5 2
2012 May 30 115 5 2
2012 May 31 115 5 2
2012 Jun 01 115 5 2
(NOAA)
:Issued: 2012 May 07 1445 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 April - 06 May 2012
Solar activity was moderate. The week was dominated by low level C-class x-ray activity from Regions 1469 (S23, L=335, class/area Eso/140 on 02 May) and 1471 (S21, L=276, class/area=Eho/320 on 02 May) until 05 May. Then, Region 1476 (N10, L=188, class/are=Fhi/760 on 06 May) rotated onto the visible disk and produced three impulsive M-class flares in approximately 12 hours. The largest of these was an M1/Sn at 05/1323Z. Only one M1/1n flare was observed the following day, also from Region 1476, at 06/1747Z.
Several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the period, although only three were deemed to be potentially earth-directed. The first of the three occurred on 04 May and was observed in STEREO-Ahead COR2 coronagraph imagery around 0309Z. The second was associated with a C1 flare from Region 1469 at 04/2356Z. The third was associated with a long duration C2/Sf flare from Region 1470 (S15, L=286, class/area=Cro/30 on 05 May) at 05/0639Z and evidence of the eruption was observed in SDO AIA imagery at 05/0600 UTC. No significant radio emissions were observed with any of the CMEs.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels (>1000 pfu) for the first three days (30 April-02 May). After a return to normal backround levels on 03-04 May, flux reached moderate levels on 05 and 06 May.
Geomagnetic field activity was at predominantly quiet levels all week. Unsettled levels occurred late on 02 May into early 03 May associated with a prolonged period of negative Bz and again late on 03 May in response to a solar sector boundary change. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft ranged from 300-400 km/s throughout the week.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 May - 02 June 2012
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate as Region 1476 makes its way across the visible solar disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 11-14 May and again on 23-29 May in response to recurrent coronal hole high speed wind streams.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to begin at unsettled levels for 07-08 May in response to a solar sector boundary crossing and CME arrival. The arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream will bring active levels on 09-11 May. After a brief return to quiet levels, unsettled conditions are expected in response to another coronal hole high speed stream on 14-15 May. Mostly quiet levels are then forecast until 19 May when unsettled to active conditions are expected to accompany the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream. Active levels will persisit through 23 May followed by a return to quiet conditions through the end of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2012 May 07 1445 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2012-05-07
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2012 May 07 115 7 2
2012 May 08 115 7 2
2012 May 09 115 12 3
2012 May 10 115 15 5
2012 May 11 115 12 3
2012 May 12 115 5 2
2012 May 13 115 5 2
2012 May 14 115 8 3
2012 May 15 120 8 3
2012 May 16 130 5 2
2012 May 17 140 8 3
2012 May 18 145 5 2
2012 May 19 145 8 3
2012 May 20 140 10 4
2012 May 21 135 15 5
2012 May 22 125 15 5
2012 May 23 120 15 5
2012 May 24 120 8 3
2012 May 25 115 5 2
2012 May 26 115 5 2
2012 May 27 115 5 2
2012 May 28 115 5 2
2012 May 29 115 5 2
2012 May 30 115 5 2
2012 May 31 115 5 2
2012 Jun 01 115 5 2
(NOAA)