Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2012 Jul 16 1434 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 - 15 July 2012
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels due to activity from a complex of closely spaced regions in the southern hemisphere. These spotted groups were made up of Regions 1519 (S15, L=107, class/area Hsx/120 on 05 July), 1520 (S16, L=86, class/area Fkc/1460 on 12 July), and 1521 (S21, L=96, class/area Eki/300 on 12 July). Region 1520 grew into a large Fkc spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration with over 1300 millionths in area by 09 July and continued to remain large and magnetically complex as it rotated across the visible disk. Region 1520 produced M1 flares at 09/2307 UTC and 10/0514 UTC, an M2/1f flare at 10/0627 UTC, and a long duration X1/2b flare at 12/1649 UTC. Associated with the X1/2b flare were Type II (1268 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions along with an 800 sfu Tenflare and a geoeffective CME with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 1453 km/s. Region 1521 produced an M1/1f flare at 14/0458 UTC. Region 1521 continued to grow through the period into an Eki spot group with 300 millionths of area and a Beta-gamma magnetic classification.
A greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit began at 09/0130 UTC, reached a maximum of 19 pfu at 09/0430 UTC and ended at 09/1445 UTC. This event was likely associated with the 08 July M6/1n flare at 08/1632 UTC from Region 1515 (S18, L=206, class/area Fhc/900 on 06 July). A second greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 12/1835 UTC, reached a maximum of 96 pfu at 12/2225 UTC, and ended at 15/0200 UTC. This event was associated with the X1/2b flare at 12/1649 UTC from Region 1520.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 09 and 15 July, but reached high levels 10 through 14 July.
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to minor storm levels, on 09 July, with high latitude major storm intervals due to residual CME effects likely associated with the 04 July M1 event. July 10 began with an isolated period of active levels and decreased to quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of the day. On 11 and 12 July, activity was mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period with high latitude intervals of minor to major storm levels.
Quiet conditions were observed from 13 July till late on 14 July when a CME associated with the 12 July X1/2b flare arrived. At 14/1728 UTC, a shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft followed by a sudden impulse (27 nT) at the Boulder magnetometer at 14/1811 UTC.
Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft increased from approximately 350 km/s to 630 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) went south to around -12 nT. At around 15/0600 UTC, solar wind speed was around 600 km/s while the IMF Bz went south around -16 nT and stayed steadily southward through the end of the period. The geomagnetic field responded with active to major storm levels while minor to severe storm conditions were observed at high latitudes through the end of the summary period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 July - 11 August 2012
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels through 18 July when Region 1520 is due to rotate off the West limb. Very low to low conditions are expected from 19 July through 20 July. Low to moderate conditions are expected from 21 July through the end of the period as old Regions 1515 and 1520 are due to return on 21 July and 01 August respectively.
There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit until Region 1520 departs the visible disk on 18 July and again from 21 July through 11 August as old Regions 1515 and 1520 return.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels from 16 - 22 July, 24 - 27 July, and 03 - 11 August. High levels are expected on 23 July and again on 28 July - 02 August due to recurrent coronal hole effects.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to begin the period with minor to major storm periods due to the continued influence of the 12 July CME. Conditions will gradually return to quiet to active levels by the end of the day on 16 July. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from17 - 21 July. On 22 - 23 July a coronalhole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective causing mostly unsettled conditions. Quiet to unsettled conditions will prevail from 24 - 26 July. On 27 July, a co-rotating interaction region followed by a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective. Active to minor storm conditions are expected on 27 July while unsettled to active conditions are expected on 28 - 29 July. Conditions are expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels on 30 July through the end of the forecast period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jul 16 1434 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2012-07-16
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2012 Jul 16 135 30 6
2012 Jul 17 130 8 3
2012 Jul 18 120 5 2
2012 Jul 19 110 5 2
2012 Jul 20 100 5 2
2012 Jul 21 100 5 2
2012 Jul 22 100 12 3
2012 Jul 23 100 8 3
2012 Jul 24 105 5 2
2012 Jul 25 120 5 2
2012 Jul 26 115 5 2
2012 Jul 27 125 25 5
2012 Jul 28 135 20 4
2012 Jul 29 165 20 4
2012 Jul 30 165 10 3
2012 Jul 31 165 10 3
2012 Aug 01 165 15 3
2012 Aug 02 160 15 3
2012 Aug 03 160 10 3
2012 Aug 04 165 10 3
2012 Aug 05 170 5 2
2012 Aug 06 170 5 2
2012 Aug 07 160 5 2
2012 Aug 08 165 5 2
2012 Aug 09 150 5 2
2012 Aug 10 150 5 2
2012 Aug 11 140 5 2
(NOAA)