Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2012 Aug 06 0759 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 July - 05 August 2012
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. The summary period began at moderate levels due to an M1/Sn flare at 30/1548Z from Region 1536 (S22, L=173, class/area Eao/100 on 01 August). Later on 30 July, Region 1538 (S22, L=117, class/area Eso/220 on 04 August) produced a C6 x-ray event with Type II (730 km/s) and Type IV radio signatures and an associated non-Earth-directed CME. From 31 July through the remainder of the summary period, solar activity was at low levels. On 04 August, Region 1539 (S22, L=099, class/area Cro/030 on 02 August) produced a long duration event (LDE) that began at 04/1104Z, peaked at 04/1500Z and ended at 04/1649Z. Associated with this event was an Earth-directed, partial halo CME with an estimated velocity of 905 km/s. Other activity of note included an LDE from Region 1535 (N18, L=135, class/area Eai/150 on 01 August). At 31/1130Z, the region produced a C5/Sf with Type II (880 km/s) and Type IV radio signatures and an associated non-Earth-directed CME. Later in the day, Region 1536 produced a C4/Sf at 31/1727Z with a Type II (592 km/s) radio signature. On 02 August, a C1 x-ray event was recorded in the vicinity of old Region 1526 (S17, L=273) which rotated around the west limb on 01 August. Associated with this event was a non-Earth-directed CME. Region 1539 produced a C2/1f flare at 03/0600Z with a Type II (622 km/s) radio
signature and a non-Earth-directed CME.
A greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at geosynchronous orbit was observed late on 02 August through midday on 03 August with a peak of 1 pfu at 02/1820Z. This enhancement was most likely associated with the 02 August limb event.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels throughout the summary period.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions. The period began at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active intervals due to a period of sustained southward IMF Bz to -8 nT from about 30/ 0600 - 1800Z. From 31 July to midday on 02 August, quiet levels were observed. At about 02/1000Z, the 28 July CME arrived at the ACE spacecraft producing active to minor storm periods from 02/1200 - 2100Z. During this time frame, IMF Bz was negative multiple times, peaking at about -12 nT at 02/1220Z while solar wind readings indicated a slight increase from near 450 km/s to about 500 km/s. For the remainder of the summary period, quiet to unsettled conditions prevailed.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 August - 01 September 2012
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels through 14 August as Regions 1539 and 1540 (S27, L=087, class/area Dso/110 on 05 August) rotate off the visible disk. From 15 - 20 August, mostly low levels are expected. A return to low to moderate levels is expected from 21 August - 01 September as Regions 1532 (S20, L=185, class/area Fho/510 on 28 July) and 1536 rotate back onto the visible disk.
A greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit is possible through 14 August as Regions 1539 and 1540 traverse the visible disk and again from 21 August - 01 September as Regions 1532 and 1536 rotate back onto the visible disk.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at predominately quiet levels from 06 - 07 August. Quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active intervals are expected on 08 - 09 August due to glancing blow effects from the 04 August CME. Predominately quiet conditions are expected from 10 - 18 August, 21 - 23 August, and 27 August - 01 September. Quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active intervals are expected from 19 - 20 August and again from 24 - 26 August due to weak coronal hole high-speed stream effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt:Issued: 2012 Aug 06 0759 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2012-08-06
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2012 Aug 06 135 5 2
2012 Aug 07 135 5 2
2012 Aug 08 130 10 3
2012 Aug 09 130 8 3
2012 Aug 10 125 5 2
2012 Aug 11 120 5 2
2012 Aug 12 115 5 2
2012 Aug 13 115 5 2
2012 Aug 14 105 5 2
2012 Aug 15 100 5 2
2012 Aug 16 90 5 2
2012 Aug 17 90 5 2
2012 Aug 18 95 5 2
2012 Aug 19 100 8 3
2012 Aug 20 100 8 3
2012 Aug 21 110 5 2
2012 Aug 22 115 5 2
2012 Aug 23 120 5 2
2012 Aug 24 125 8 3
2012 Aug 25 130 8 3
2012 Aug 26 135 12 3
2012 Aug 27 140 5 2
2012 Aug 28 145 5 2
2012 Aug 29 140 5 2
2012 Aug 30 140 5 2
2012 Aug 31 140 5 2
2012 Sep 01 135 5 2
(NOAA)