Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2012 Aug 20 0630 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 August 2012
Solar activity has been at very low to high levels. Two active sunspot regions dominated the summary period. Region 1543 (N21, L=21, class/area Hhx/360 on 16 August) was the most active region from 13-16 August, producing multiple C-class solar flares. Many of these events were associated with discrete radio frequency bursts, Type II and Type IV radio sweeps, suggesting CME liftoff. Due to the location of Region 1543, many of the CME’s were Earth-directed but very little effects were forecast upon arrival at Earth. Region 1543 decayed from a beta-gamma to a simple beta group during the summary period. On 17 August, from around the east limb, multiple M-class solar flares were observed, including an M2.4 x-ray event at 17/1319 UTC as well as an M1 x-ray event at 17/1720 UTC. On18 August, five more M-class solar flares were observed, the largest being an M5/Sf x-ray flare at 18/0102 UTC with an associated 120 sfu Tenflare. As the day progressed, Region 1548 (N20, L=232, class/area Cso/120 on 18 August) was numbered and determined to be the active region responsible for all of the M-class events. From 16-18 August, multiple CME’s were observed in LASCO C2 imagery, all appeared to originate from Region 1548. Due to the location around the east limb, none of these CME’s were forecast to arrive at Earth.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels during the period
Geomagnetic field activity was at predominantly quiet to active levels throughout the summary period. Quiet to unsettled levels prevailed from 13-16 August as solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained at nominal background levels. An increase to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods were observed from 17-19 August. Weak CME effects were observed on 17 August and late on 18 August, measurements from the ACE spacecraft indicated a solar sector boundary (SSB) crossing. Following the SSB, coronal hole effects were observed on 19 August with solar wind speeds, increasing from below 400 km/s to almost 600 km/s
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 August - 15 September 2012
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for more M-class events from 20-31 August as Region 1548 continues to evolve and rotate across the disk. A return to predominantly low levels is expected to prevail from 01-15 September.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be normal levels from 20-21 August. An increase to high flux levels is expected from 22-26 August. A return to normal - background levels is expected to prevail for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels with a few brief periods of quiet to unsettled levels due to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream effects. From 20 - 22 August, 25-25 August, 08-09 September, and 15 September quiet to unsettled levels are expected. For the remainder of the forecast period, mostly quiet levels are expected to prevail.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2012 Aug 20 0630 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2012-08-20
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2012 Aug 20 100 12 4
2012 Aug 21 100 8 3
2012 Aug 22 105 8 3
2012 Aug 23 110 5 2
2012 Aug 24 115 5 2
2012 Aug 25 120 8 3
2012 Aug 26 130 8 3
2012 Aug 27 135 5 2
2012 Aug 28 135 5 2
2012 Aug 29 135 5 2
2012 Aug 30 130 5 2
2012 Aug 31 130 5 2
2012 Sep 01 130 5 2
2012 Sep 02 125 5 2
2012 Sep 03 120 5 2
2012 Sep 04 120 5 2
2012 Sep 05 120 5 2
2012 Sep 06 115 5 2
2012 Sep 07 115 5 2
2012 Sep 08 115 8 3
2012 Sep 09 110 8 3
2012 Sep 10 105 5 2
2012 Sep 11 100 5 2
2012 Sep 12 95 5 2
2012 Sep 13 95 5 2
2012 Sep 14 95 5 2
2012 Sep 15 95 12 4
(NOAA)