Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2012 Sep 03 1342 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 August - 02 September 2012
Solar activity was very low 27 and 28 August. Moderate activity was observed on 30 August as Region 1563 (S25, L=078, class/area Dso/70 on 01 September) produced the largest flare of the period, an M1 at 30/1211 UTC. Solar activity was at low levels for the remainder of the period. A C8/2f flare associated with a filament eruption in the southeast quadrant of the solar disk occurred at 31/2043 UTC. An associated CME was observed on SOHO/LASCO and STEREO A/B coronagraphs with a possible Earth-directed trajectory. Two other CMEs were observed on 02 September in STEREO A COR2 imagery beginning at 02/0409 UTC and 02/1109 UTC with potential Earth-directed components.
A greater than 10 MeV proton event (category S1-Minor) associated with the filament eruption on 31 August, began at 01/1335 UTC, reached a maximum of 60 pfu at 02/0850 UTC, and is currently above threshold.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 27 August. Levels increased to high from 28 through 31 August. Moderate levels were observed for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet from 27 August through 01 September. Activity increased on 02 September with unsettled to active conditions observed due to an extended period of negative Bz.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 September - 29 September 2012
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity through the forecast period.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress is expected to remain above the 10 pfu threshold 03-04 September with a additional enhancements possible with CME arrivals.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate or lower levels from 03-16 September, 21-23 September, and 27-29 September. High levels are forecast 17-20 September and 24-26 September due to coronal hole (CH) effects.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be as high as minor storm (G1) conditions on 03 September with anticipated effects from the 31 August CME. Residual elevated conditions ranging from unsettled to minor storm levels are expected to persist from 03-06 September due to continued transient activity in conjunction with possible CH effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 08 September through 29 September with the exception of two CH periods; 14-16 September and 20-23 September, which should see unsettled to active periods.
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2012 Sep 03 1343 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2012-09-03
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2012 Sep 03 120 30 6
2012 Sep 04 120 15 5
2012 Sep 05 120 12 4
2012 Sep 06 115 10 3
2012 Sep 07 115 8 3
2012 Sep 08 115 5 2
2012 Sep 09 110 5 2
2012 Sep 10 110 5 2
2012 Sep 11 105 5 2
2012 Sep 12 105 5 2
2012 Sep 13 100 5 2
2012 Sep 14 100 10 3
2012 Sep 15 100 10 3
2012 Sep 16 100 10 3
2012 Sep 17 95 5 2
2012 Sep 18 95 5 2
2012 Sep 19 95 5 2
2012 Sep 20 95 10 3
2012 Sep 21 95 8 3
2012 Sep 22 95 8 3
2012 Sep 23 100 8 3
2012 Sep 24 110 5 2
2012 Sep 25 115 5 2
2012 Sep 26 120 5 2
2012 Sep 27 125 5 2
2012 Sep 28 130 5 2
2012 Sep 29 130 12 3
(NOAA)
:Issued: 2012 Sep 03 1342 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 August - 02 September 2012
Solar activity was very low 27 and 28 August. Moderate activity was observed on 30 August as Region 1563 (S25, L=078, class/area Dso/70 on 01 September) produced the largest flare of the period, an M1 at 30/1211 UTC. Solar activity was at low levels for the remainder of the period. A C8/2f flare associated with a filament eruption in the southeast quadrant of the solar disk occurred at 31/2043 UTC. An associated CME was observed on SOHO/LASCO and STEREO A/B coronagraphs with a possible Earth-directed trajectory. Two other CMEs were observed on 02 September in STEREO A COR2 imagery beginning at 02/0409 UTC and 02/1109 UTC with potential Earth-directed components.
A greater than 10 MeV proton event (category S1-Minor) associated with the filament eruption on 31 August, began at 01/1335 UTC, reached a maximum of 60 pfu at 02/0850 UTC, and is currently above threshold.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 27 August. Levels increased to high from 28 through 31 August. Moderate levels were observed for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet from 27 August through 01 September. Activity increased on 02 September with unsettled to active conditions observed due to an extended period of negative Bz.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 September - 29 September 2012
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity through the forecast period.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress is expected to remain above the 10 pfu threshold 03-04 September with a additional enhancements possible with CME arrivals.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate or lower levels from 03-16 September, 21-23 September, and 27-29 September. High levels are forecast 17-20 September and 24-26 September due to coronal hole (CH) effects.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be as high as minor storm (G1) conditions on 03 September with anticipated effects from the 31 August CME. Residual elevated conditions ranging from unsettled to minor storm levels are expected to persist from 03-06 September due to continued transient activity in conjunction with possible CH effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 08 September through 29 September with the exception of two CH periods; 14-16 September and 20-23 September, which should see unsettled to active periods.
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2012 Sep 03 1343 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2012-09-03
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2012 Sep 03 120 30 6
2012 Sep 04 120 15 5
2012 Sep 05 120 12 4
2012 Sep 06 115 10 3
2012 Sep 07 115 8 3
2012 Sep 08 115 5 2
2012 Sep 09 110 5 2
2012 Sep 10 110 5 2
2012 Sep 11 105 5 2
2012 Sep 12 105 5 2
2012 Sep 13 100 5 2
2012 Sep 14 100 10 3
2012 Sep 15 100 10 3
2012 Sep 16 100 10 3
2012 Sep 17 95 5 2
2012 Sep 18 95 5 2
2012 Sep 19 95 5 2
2012 Sep 20 95 10 3
2012 Sep 21 95 8 3
2012 Sep 22 95 8 3
2012 Sep 23 100 8 3
2012 Sep 24 110 5 2
2012 Sep 25 115 5 2
2012 Sep 26 120 5 2
2012 Sep 27 125 5 2
2012 Sep 28 130 5 2
2012 Sep 29 130 12 3
(NOAA)