Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2012 Sep 17 1309 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 September 2012
Solar activity was at low levels during the first half of the of the summary period, and ended the week at very low levels. Region 1569 (S12, L=296, class/area=Eac/210 on 14 September) was the largest and most magnetically complex region of the period, yet only yielded four C-class flares. The largest of these was a C3/Sf flare that occurred at 11/0111Z. A filament eruption occurred near N22W20 at approximately 13/0640Z. The associated CME had an estimated speed of 536 km/s, but had little to no impact on Earth. A Type II Radio Sweep occurred at approximately 15/2259Z, had an estimated speed of 681 km/s, and was associated with a non-Earth directed CME near the north west limb.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 10 and 12 September. Moderate levels were observed on 11 September and again from 13 - 16 September.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period with two isolated unsettled periods on 12 September and 15 September due to extended periods of negative Bz. A solar sector boundary crossing was also observed at approximately 16/1800Z.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 September - 13 October 2012
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a chance for moderate activity throughout the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 18-20 and 24-27 September, then again from 07-09 October.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled with active conditions possible on 19-22 September, 03-05, 09-10, and 12-13 October. The active conditions are mainly associated with coronal hole high speed streams.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2012 Sep 17 1309 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2012-09-17
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2012 Sep 17 95 5 2
2012 Sep 18 95 5 2
2012 Sep 19 95 5 2
2012 Sep 20 100 10 3
2012 Sep 21 105 8 3
2012 Sep 22 110 8 3
2012 Sep 23 110 8 3
2012 Sep 24 110 5 2
2012 Sep 25 115 5 2
2012 Sep 26 125 5 2
2012 Sep 27 130 5 2
2012 Sep 28 140 5 2
2012 Sep 29 140 10 3
2012 Sep 30 140 5 2
2012 Oct 01 140 5 2
2012 Oct 02 135 5 2
2012 Oct 03 130 10 3
2012 Oct 04 130 8 3
2012 Oct 05 130 8 3
2012 Oct 06 125 5 2
2012 Oct 07 125 5 2
2012 Oct 08 120 5 2
2012 Oct 09 115 8 3
2012 Oct 10 115 8 3
2012 Oct 11 120 5 2
2012 Oct 12 115 8 3
2012 Oct 13 115 10 3
(NOAA)
:Issued: 2012 Sep 17 1309 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 September 2012
Solar activity was at low levels during the first half of the of the summary period, and ended the week at very low levels. Region 1569 (S12, L=296, class/area=Eac/210 on 14 September) was the largest and most magnetically complex region of the period, yet only yielded four C-class flares. The largest of these was a C3/Sf flare that occurred at 11/0111Z. A filament eruption occurred near N22W20 at approximately 13/0640Z. The associated CME had an estimated speed of 536 km/s, but had little to no impact on Earth. A Type II Radio Sweep occurred at approximately 15/2259Z, had an estimated speed of 681 km/s, and was associated with a non-Earth directed CME near the north west limb.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 10 and 12 September. Moderate levels were observed on 11 September and again from 13 - 16 September.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period with two isolated unsettled periods on 12 September and 15 September due to extended periods of negative Bz. A solar sector boundary crossing was also observed at approximately 16/1800Z.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 September - 13 October 2012
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a chance for moderate activity throughout the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 18-20 and 24-27 September, then again from 07-09 October.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled with active conditions possible on 19-22 September, 03-05, 09-10, and 12-13 October. The active conditions are mainly associated with coronal hole high speed streams.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2012 Sep 17 1309 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2012-09-17
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2012 Sep 17 95 5 2
2012 Sep 18 95 5 2
2012 Sep 19 95 5 2
2012 Sep 20 100 10 3
2012 Sep 21 105 8 3
2012 Sep 22 110 8 3
2012 Sep 23 110 8 3
2012 Sep 24 110 5 2
2012 Sep 25 115 5 2
2012 Sep 26 125 5 2
2012 Sep 27 130 5 2
2012 Sep 28 140 5 2
2012 Sep 29 140 10 3
2012 Sep 30 140 5 2
2012 Oct 01 140 5 2
2012 Oct 02 135 5 2
2012 Oct 03 130 10 3
2012 Oct 04 130 8 3
2012 Oct 05 130 8 3
2012 Oct 06 125 5 2
2012 Oct 07 125 5 2
2012 Oct 08 120 5 2
2012 Oct 09 115 8 3
2012 Oct 10 115 8 3
2012 Oct 11 120 5 2
2012 Oct 12 115 8 3
2012 Oct 13 115 10 3
(NOAA)