Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2012 Oct 01 1415 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 - 30 September 2012
After a relatively unspectacular start, solar activity reached moderate levels this week. The first four days saw only occasional C-class flares. Regions 1575 (N08, L=181, class/area=Eko/320 on 22
Sep) and 1577 (N08, L=162, class/area=Dai/100 on 23 Sep) were the most prolific regions, producing 11 and 9 C-class events, respectively. One of the events from Region 1577, a C3/1f flare at
27 / 2357 UTC, was associated with a filament eruption northwest of, and adjacent to the region. The CME was subsequently visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 28/0018 UTC and LASCO C3 imagery 12 minutes later. Radial velocity of the ejecta was estimated to be 872 km/s. By midday on the 28th, x-ray background began rising, signaling an increase in activity as Region 1583 began to grow rapidly. By 30 September at 0433 UTC, Region 1583 (N12, L=187, class/area=Dso/90 on 30 Sep) had produced an M1 flare. Later that day, Region 1575 produced the second largest flare of the week, a C9/Sf at 30/2339 UTC.
A 10 MeV integrated proton flux greater than 10 pfu event occurred in conjunction with the C3 flare mentioned above. Proton flux crossed the 10 pfu threshold on 28/0300 UTC, peaked at 28 pfu at
28/0445 UTC, and ended at 28/1040 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels each day of the week.
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet until the end of the week when it reached active levels. The CME from 28 September described above reached earth on the 30th. Two separate interplanetary shocks (IPS) were observed at the ACE spacecraft. The first was at 30/1025 UTC, followed by a 15nT geomagnetic sudden impulse (SI) observed at the Boulder magnetometer at 30/1138 UTC. A second IPS was observed at the ACE spacecraft at 30/2213 UTC followed by a 35nT SI at the
Boulder magnetometer at 30/2307 UTC. The first sudden impulse was followed by unsettled conditions; the second, by active conditions. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field reached -15 at 30/2225 UTC and continues to hover between -15 and -20 nT at the time of this report.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 October - 27 October 2012
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for moderate activity, particularly for the first two days of the forecast period and again in mid-October.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at background levels except for 7-9 October in association with a recurrent coronal hole.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to begin the period ranging from minor to strong (G1-G3) levels due to the CME from 28 September. Conditions should quickly return to mostly quiet and for
the period be generally quiet levels with the possible exceptions of 3-5 October and 15-17 October when coronal hole high speed streams are expected to be geoeffective.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2012 Oct 01 1415 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2012-10-01
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2012 Oct 01 130 32 7
2012 Oct 02 130 8 3
2012 Oct 03 125 5 2
2012 Oct 04 120 5 2
2012 Oct 05 115 5 2
2012 Oct 06 115 5 2
2012 Oct 07 115 5 2
2012 Oct 08 110 5 2
2012 Oct 09 110 8 3
2012 Oct 10 115 8 3
2012 Oct 11 120 5 2
2012 Oct 12 115 5 2
2012 Oct 13 115 5 2
2012 Oct 14 120 5 2
2012 Oct 15 120 8 3
2012 Oct 16 130 12 3
2012 Oct 17 140 10 3
2012 Oct 18 140 5 2
2012 Oct 19 145 5 2
2012 Oct 20 150 5 2
2012 Oct 21 137 5 2
2012 Oct 22 140 5 2
2012 Oct 23 140 5 2
2012 Oct 24 135 5 2
2012 Oct 25 135 5 2
2012 Oct 26 135 5 2
2012 Oct 27 135 5 2
(NOAA)