Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2012 Dec 03 1338 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 November - 02 December 2012
Solar activity reached moderate levels this week with a total of three M-class events, two of which came from Region 1620 (S12, L=97, class/area=Ekc/420 on 28 November). This region appeared on 20 November and remained relatively small and stable for the first six days. On 26 November, it more than quadrupled in size (to 240 mil) and almost doubled in spot count (to 23). The following day it produced the first of two M-class events, an M1/Sf on 27/2126 UTC. By this time it had evolved to a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration which it would maintain for the following two days.
The rapid growth continued and Region 1620 reached 420 mils on 28 November when it produced an M2/1f event at 2136 UTC. Following this second M-class event, the region began to decay and produced only occasional C-class events until it crossed the west limb on 01 December.
The remaining M-class flare was attributed to Region 1618 (N08L=135, class/area=Ekc/450 on 23 November). This region producedthree M-class flares in the week prior. This week it only managed toproduce one, an M1/Sf on 27 November at 1557 UTC. By this time ithad shrunk to 170 millionths but retained its beta-gamma-deltamagnetic configuration. It rotated around the west limb the next
day.
The largest region on the disk this week was Region 1623 (N09,L=340, class/area=Eko/450 on 28 November). It produced a C5/Sf flareon 29/1205 UTC and four other C-flares as its magnetic complexityincreased to a beta-gamma configuration. It retained this complexityfor the next three days but failed to produce any more C-flares.Nearby, Region 1625 (N15, L=338, class/area=Dso/230 on 29 November)managed to produce six unremarkable C-flares on its first day. Theremaining regions during the week were relatively quiescent.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was atnormal to moderate levels all week.
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet all week with the exception of two unsettled periods. The first was during the 00-03 synopticperiod on 26 November most likely associated with a CME that erupted on 23 November. A weak interplanetary shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at 26/0437 UTC followed by an 8nT sudden impulse at the Boulder magnetometer at 26/0514 UTC. Conditions quickly returned to quiet levels. The second unsettled period was early on 02 December
associated with co-rotating interaction region.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 December - 29 December 2012
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance of isolated M-class flares through the entire forecast period (03-29 December).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels except during 14-21 December following the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream on 11
December and sustained by another stream which is expected to become geoeffective on 14 December.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels for the majority of the forecast period. Unsettled to potentially active levels are expected on 11-12, 14, and 29 December associated with
recurrent high speed solar wind streams.
:Issued: 2012 Dec 03 1338 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2012-12-03
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2012 Dec 03 105 8 3
2012 Dec 04 115 5 2
2012 Dec 05 125 5 2
2012 Dec 06 125 5 2
2012 Dec 07 130 5 2
2012 Dec 08 130 5 2
2012 Dec 09 130 5 2
2012 Dec 10 130 5 2
2012 Dec 11 130 10 3
2012 Dec 12 135 8 3
2012 Dec 13 135 5 2
2012 Dec 14 135 8 3
2012 Dec 15 135 8 3
2012 Dec 16 135 5 2
2012 Dec 17 135 5 2
2012 Dec 18 130 5 2
2012 Dec 19 125 5 2
2012 Dec 20 120 5 2
2012 Dec 21 115 5 2
2012 Dec 22 115 5 2
2012 Dec 23 115 5 2
2012 Dec 24 110 5 2
2012 Dec 25 110 5 2
2012 Dec 26 110 5 2
2012 Dec 27 110 5 2
2012 Dec 28 100 5 2
2012 Dec 29 100 8 3
(NOAA)