Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2013 Jan 28 0352 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 - 27 January 2013
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past week. At the beginning of the summary period, Region 1654 (N08, L=151 Class/Area Fki/1100 on 11 Jan) rotated off the west limb without producing any major activity. Region 1660 (N13, L=065 Class/area Dao/220 on 25 Jan) was the only other region of magnetic complexity on the visible disk. However, very little activity was attributed to Region 1660. The remaining regions on the disk remained stable and quiet. A couple of non-Earth directed CMEs were observed during the period. On 23 January, a large filament eruption was observed off the northeast quadrant of the visible disk. LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A/B COR2 imagery supported an associated CME with this event. SWPC forecaster analysis and WSA-Enlil models runs indicated this event was Earth directed, however very little affects would be observed
upon arrival.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate levels during the summary period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels from 21 -25 January. On 26 January, solar wind measurements from the ACE spacecraft indicated the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS), preceded by a co-rotating interaction region (CIR). The ACE measurements showed and small increase in solar wind density, followed by an increase in solar wind speed, accompanied by an enhancement in the total interplanetary magnetic field. In response to these changes, quiet to active levels were observed. As effects from the CH HSS waned, a return to quiet levels was observed on 27 January. An instrument on the ACE spacecraft called the EPAM, used to monitor energetic protons and electrons in the solar wind, indicated the possible arrival of the 23 January CME late on 26 January. Due to the arrival of the CH HSS, it was hard to discern which effects can be attributed to the CH HSS and which can be attributed to the CME.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 January - 23 February 2013
Solar activity is expected to be very low levels with the possibility of C-class events for the entire forecast period. Even though several of the returning regions show magnetic complexity, very little data has indicated increases in activity while these regions rotate around the far side of the disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be normal to high levels on 28-30 January and 11-12 February in response to CH HSS effects. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the entire forecast period, except for 09-10 February and 22-23 February. Quiet to active levels are expected on these days in response to CH HSS effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jan 28 0352 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2013-01-28
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2013 Jan 28 95 8 3
2013 Jan 29 95 5 2
2013 Jan 30 110 5 2
2013 Jan 31 125 5 2
2013 Feb 01 125 5 2
2013 Feb 02 125 5 2
2013 Feb 03 130 5 2
2013 Feb 04 140 5 2
2013 Feb 05 140 5 2
2013 Feb 06 135 5 2
2013 Feb 07 135 5 2
2013 Feb 08 130 5 2
2013 Feb 09 125 8 3
2013 Feb 10 120 8 3
2013 Feb 11 120 5 2
2013 Feb 12 115 5 2
2013 Feb 13 110 5 2
2013 Feb 14 105 5 2
2013 Feb 15 105 5 2
2013 Feb 16 110 5 2
2013 Feb 17 110 5 2
2013 Feb 18 110 5 2
2013 Feb 19 105 5 2
2013 Feb 20 105 5 2
2013 Feb 21 105 5 2
2013 Feb 22 105 15 4
2013 Feb 23 105 10 3
(NOAA)