Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2013 Jan 14 0326 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC at www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 - 13 January 2013
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Low levels were observed on 07-10 January and again on 12 January. Moderate levels were observed on 11 and 13 January. At the beginning of the period, there were 12 numbered regions on the visible disk. Most of the regions were relatively stable producing low level C-class flares. The most magnetically complex spot group was Region 1652 (N17, L=184, class/area Fkc/320 on 07 January); a Fkc/BG spot group. By early 08 January, Region 1654 (N08, L=151, class/area Fki/1100 on 11 January) rotated around the NE limb. Both Regions 1652 and 1654 were responsible for the majority of the C-class activity that occurred through the rest of the period. By 11 January, moderate levels were reached as Region 1654 produced two M-class flares; an M1 at 11/0911 UTC with associated Type II (537 km/s) and Type IV radio bursts and an M1/1f at 11/1507 UTC. Other activity on 11 January included a 174 sfu Tenflare associated with a C1 flare from Region 1654 at 11/1846 UTC. Low levels returned on 12 January. By 13 January, moderate levels returned as Region 1652 produced two M-class flares; an M1 at 13/0050 UTC and another M1 at 13/0838 UTC with associated Type II (649 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps as well as an Earth-directed CME. First seen in STEREO-A COR2 imagery at 13/0909 UTC (estimated
speed of 371 km/s), the ejecta appeared in SOHO/LASCO imagery as a faint halo beginning at 13/1236 UTC.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels.
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet for the majority of the period through late on 13 January. The solar wind speed, measured at the ACE spacecraft, ranged from 272 km/s to 375 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT. By late on 10 January, the phi angle changed from predominantly negative (towards) to positive (away) indicative of a solar sector boundary crossing. By mid day on 13 January, solar wind speed began to increase from approximately 400 km/s to 510 km/s. An increase in temperature and total field strength (10 nT) was observed as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream became geoeffective. Unsettled periods were observed from 13/1800-2400 UTC.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 January - 09 February 2013
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels until Region 1654 rotates around the west limb on 20 January. Very low to low levels are expected until Regions 1652 and 1654 return beginning on 31 January. A chance for M-class flares exists from 31 January through the end of the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the forecast period with possible high levels on 15-16 January and again on 19-20 January due to coronal hole high speed stream and CME effects.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to active on 14 January due to continued coronal hole high speed stream effects. Quiet levels are expected through mid-day on 17 January. By mid to late 17 January, a CME is expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to active periods through 18 January. Conditions are expected to return to quiet levels by 19 January and continue until 09 February when a coronal hole high speed stream is expected to return.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jan 14 0326 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact at www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2013-01-14
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2013 Jan 14 155 8 4
2013 Jan 15 150 5 2
2013 Jan 16 145 5 2
2013 Jan 17 140 8 3
2013 Jan 18 135 12 4
2013 Jan 19 140 5 2
2013 Jan 20 145 5 2
2013 Jan 21 135 5 2
2013 Jan 22 130 5 2
2013 Jan 23 130 5 2
2013 Jan 24 130 5 2
2013 Jan 25 130 5 2
2013 Jan 26 135 5 2
2013 Jan 27 135 5 2
2013 Jan 28 135 5 2
2013 Jan 29 130 5 2
2013 Jan 30 135 5 2
2013 Jan 31 140 5 2
2013 Feb 01 140 5 2
2013 Feb 02 150 5 2
2013 Feb 03 155 5 2
2013 Feb 04 155 5 2
2013 Feb 05 150 5 2
2013 Feb 06 150 5 2
2013 Feb 07 150 5 2
2013 Feb 08 150 5 2
2013 Feb 09 150 8 3
(NOAA)