Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2013 Mar 11 0413 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 - 10 March 2013
Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels. A majority of the week was dominated by very low levels with only B-class events observed on 04, 06 and 08 - 10 March. Activity increased to
moderate levels on 05 March when Region 1686 (S13, L=263, class/area Dac/140 on 06 March) produced an impulsive M1/Sf flare at 05/0754 UTC. Associated with this event were weak, low frequency radio emissions including a Type II signature with an estimated shock velocity of 1011 km/s. Later on 05 March, this region produced a C1 event at 2044 UTC as well as another C1 event at 08/1644 UTC as it rotated off the visible disk. The other spotted regions on the disk were quiet and stable through the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the week.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels 04 - 08 March, reaching a peak flux of 7905 pfu at 06/1925 UTC. Flux levels decayed to moderate levels on 09 - 10
March.
Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet levels with an isolated unsettled period observed at 05/0000 - 0300 UTC. Solar wind speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, ranged from high of about 500 km/s early on 04 March and exhibited a slow, steady decay in speed through the week, ending the period near 340 km/s. Total field measurements ranged from 1 nT to 9 nT while interplanetary magnetic field Bz ranged between +/- 5 nT. The Phi angle began the period in a mostly negative (towards) orientation through about 06/0800 UTC. Through the remainder of the period, field orientation was variable, shifting from negative to positive (away).
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 March - 06 April 2013
Solar activity is likely to be low through the period. A slight chance for M-class activity exists through 16 March while Region 1689 remains on the disk, and again from 21 March - 03 April with
the return of old Region 1686 (S12, L=263).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 28 March. Moderate to high levels are possible from 29 March - 04 April with
the return of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Active periods are possible on 28 March due to CH HSS effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Mar 11 0413 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2013-03-11
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2013 Mar 11 120 5 2
2013 Mar 12 120 5 2
2013 Mar 13 120 5 2
2013 Mar 14 120 5 2
2013 Mar 15 120 5 2
2013 Mar 16 115 5 2
2013 Mar 17 115 5 2
2013 Mar 18 110 5 2
2013 Mar 19 105 5 2
2013 Mar 20 100 5 2
2013 Mar 21 100 8 3
2013 Mar 22 95 5 2
2013 Mar 23 95 5 2
2013 Mar 24 95 5 2
2013 Mar 25 100 5 2
2013 Mar 26 100 5 2
2013 Mar 27 105 5 2
2013 Mar 28 110 18 4
2013 Mar 29 110 10 3
2013 Mar 30 110 5 2
2013 Mar 31 110 5 2
2013 Apr 01 115 5 2
2013 Apr 02 115 5 2
2013 Apr 03 115 5 2
2013 Apr 04 120 5 2
2013 Apr 05 120 5 2
2013 Apr 06 120 5 2
(NOAA)