Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts:Issued: 2013 Nov 25 0413 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html # # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts # Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 - 24 November 2013 Solar activity reached high levels during the period. The week began at low levels with C-class flares coming from Regions 1893 (S13, L=102 class/area Eki/480 on 18 Nov), 1897 (S21, L=064 class/area Ekc/610 on 13 Nov) and 1900 (S19, L=105 class/area Dac/150 on 15 Nov). On 19 November, Region 1893 produced an X1/Sf at 19/1026 UTC. An associated CME was observed, along with a Type II (est. speed 1049 km/s) radio sweep and a 530 sfu Tenflare. Low levels returned on 20 November. Moderate levels were reached on 21 and 23 November. Region 1893 produced an M1 at 21/1111 UTC and newly numbered Region 1904 (N12, L=039 class/area Dai/130 on 24 Nov) produced a pair of M1 flares at 23/0232 UTC and 23/1257 UTC. Low levels rounded out the period on 24 November. A filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 23/2342 UTC. A subsequent CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 24/0125 UTC. The CME is not expected to be geo effective. A greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement was observed beginning at approximately 19/1245 UTC and reached a maximum flux value of 4 pfu at 19/1825 UTC before returning to background levels by 21 November. The enhancement was likely associated with the X1/Sf flare on 19 November. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels throughout the period. Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with the exception of three unsettled periods observed between 23/0300 UTC and 23/1200 UTC. The increase in activity appeared to be due to a weak transient. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 November - 21 December 2013 Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for isolated M-class activity until the return of old Region 1890 (S13, L=171) on 28 November. Chances for moderate activity increase from 28 November to 16 December as a chain of regions that produced moderate to high activity during the last rotation return to the visible disk. Predominately low level activity is expected for the remainder of the period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the period. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels from 25 - 27 November due to effects from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet conditions are expected from 28 November - 03 December. Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated to return on 04 December due to a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to active conditions are anticipated on 06 - 08 December due to a recurrent positive polarity HSS. Predominately quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period with the exception of 13 - 14 December. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on those two days due to a second negative polarity HSS.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Nov 25 0413 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2013-11-25
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2013 Nov 25 130 8 3
2013 Nov 26 130 10 3
2013 Nov 27 130 8 3
2013 Nov 28 135 5 2
2013 Nov 29 135 5 2
2013 Nov 30 135 5 2
2013 Dec 01 135 5 2
2013 Dec 02 140 5 2
2013 Dec 03 145 5 2
2013 Dec 04 145 10 3
2013 Dec 05 150 5 2
2013 Dec 06 150 15 4
2013 Dec 07 155 15 4
2013 Dec 08 165 12 3
2013 Dec 09 165 5 2
2013 Dec 10 165 5 2
2013 Dec 11 165 5 2
2013 Dec 12 165 5 2
2013 Dec 13 165 10 3
2013 Dec 14 165 8 3
2013 Dec 15 160 5 2
2013 Dec 16 155 5 2
2013 Dec 17 145 5 2
2013 Dec 18 140 5 2
2013 Dec 19 140 5 2
2013 Dec 20 135 5 2
2013 Dec 21 130 5 2
(NOAA)