Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2013 Dec 02 0333 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 November - 01 December 2013
Solar activity was at low levels throughout the period. The largest event was a C2 flare on 25 November at 1149 UTC; from Region 1904 (N12, L=039 class/area Dai/130 on 24 November). Regions 1908 (S26, L=236 class/area Dao/230 on 29 November) and 1909 (S18, L=205 class/area Dkc/350 on 01 December) were the most productive flare-producing regions of this period; each producing numerous C1
flares during their transit across the visible disk. A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C3 coronagraph imagery beginning on 27 November at 2306 UTC and was associated with a long-duration C1 flare from Region 1907 (S09, L=272 class/area Eac/200 on 28 November) that peaked on 28 November at 0041 UTC. The WSA-ENLIL model output and forecaster analysis indicated a possible glancing blow at Earth on 02 December. A weak shock signature was observed at the ACE spacecraft on 29 November at 1250 UTC, but no reflection of the shock was observed in the Earth-based magnetometer network.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels throughout this period.
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on 25 - 28 November under a nominal solar wind environment. The geomagnetic field increased to quiet to unsettled levels on 29 November and 01 December, with quiet to active levels observed on 30 November due to onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 December - 28 December 2013
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class flare activity (NOAA Scale R1-R2 / Minor-Moderate) throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be normal to moderate levels throughout the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at predominately quiet levels throughout the outlook period with the following exceptions: quiet to active conditions on 02 December and quiet to unsettled conditions on 03 December with passage of the 28 November coronal mass ejection (CME), quiet to unsettled conditions on 06 December and quiet to active conditions on 07 - 08 December with onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS), quiet to unsettled conditions on 13 - 14 December with onset of a negative polarity CH HSS, quiet to active conditions on 26 - 27 December and quiet to unsettled conditions on 28 December with onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Dec 02 0333 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2013-12-02
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2013 Dec 02 130 12 4
2013 Dec 03 135 10 3
2013 Dec 04 135 5 2
2013 Dec 05 140 5 2
2013 Dec 06 145 8 3
2013 Dec 07 140 12 4
2013 Dec 08 135 12 4
2013 Dec 09 130 5 2
2013 Dec 10 130 5 2
2013 Dec 11 130 5 2
2013 Dec 12 135 5 2
2013 Dec 13 135 10 3
2013 Dec 14 135 8 3
2013 Dec 15 130 5 2
2013 Dec 16 130 5 2
2013 Dec 17 135 5 2
2013 Dec 18 130 5 2
2013 Dec 19 130 5 2
2013 Dec 20 125 5 2
2013 Dec 21 125 5 2
2013 Dec 22 130 5 2
2013 Dec 23 130 5 2
2013 Dec 24 130 5 2
2013 Dec 25 125 5 2
2013 Dec 26 125 12 4
2013 Dec 27 125 10 4
2013 Dec 28 125 8 3
(NOAA)