Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2013 Dec 09 0428 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 - 08 December 2013
Solar activity reached moderate levels this period due to an M1/1n flare on 07 Dec at 0729 UTC from Region 1909 (S18, L=205 class/area Dkc/350 on 01 Dec), which was the largest event of the period. A Tenflare (220 sfu) and a Type-II radio sweep (691 km/s) accompanied this event. A subsequent coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning on 07 Dec at 0748 UTC. The bulk of the ejecta associated with this CME appeared to be directed to the west of Earth, but forecaster analysis and WSA-ENLIL model output indicate that Earth will likely see a flanking portion of this CME midday on 10 Dec (See space weather outlook for expected impacts). While Region 1909 was the most productive region of the period, contributing several mid-level C-class flares in addition to the M-class flare, Regions 1913 (S14, L=268 class/area Dao/130 on 04 Dec) and 1916 (S13, L=169 class/area Eai/240 on 08 Dec) also contributed many low-level C-class flares throughout the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at predominately normal levels with moderate levels observed briefly on 06 Dec from 1020 - 1915 UTC and on 07 Dec from 1555 - 2000 UTC, reaching a maximum flux value of 159 pfu on 06 Dec at 1215 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 02 Dec and 04 - 06 Dec. Unsettled conditions were observed on 03 Dec due to a prolonged period of southward Bz and on 07 Dec with initial onset of a strong positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). An isolated period of G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions was observed on 08 Dec at 0000 - 0300 UTC due to a strong co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by the CH HSS. An isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions followed for the 0300 - 0600 UTC synoptic period. CH HSS influence began to subside midday on 08 Dec and active to quiet conditions were observed for the remained of the day.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 December - 04 January 2014
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flare activity (NOAA Scale R1-R2 / Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the outlook period with a chance for high levels on 10 - 11 Dec due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 09 - 10 Dec with quiet to unsettled levels on 11 Dec due to combined positive polarity CH HSS effects and the arrival of the 07 Dec CME midday on 10 Dec. Predominately quiet conditions are expected for 12 - 25 Dec. An increase to unsettled to active levels is expected for 26 - 27 Dec with quiet to unsettled levels on 28 Dec due to a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions are expected for 29 Dec - 02 Jan. An increase to unsettled to active levels is expected for 03 Jan with active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions for 04 Jan with the return of a strong positive polarity CH HSS.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Dec 09 0428 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2013-12-09
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2013 Dec 09 168 15 4
2013 Dec 10 170 10 4
2013 Dec 11 172 8 3
2013 Dec 12 172 5 2
2013 Dec 13 170 5 2
2013 Dec 14 168 5 2
2013 Dec 15 165 5 2
2013 Dec 16 168 5 2
2013 Dec 17 170 5 2
2013 Dec 18 170 5 2
2013 Dec 19 170 5 2
2013 Dec 20 170 5 2
2013 Dec 21 172 5 2
2013 Dec 22 172 5 2
2013 Dec 23 175 5 2
2013 Dec 24 175 5 2
2013 Dec 25 175 5 2
2013 Dec 26 172 12 4
2013 Dec 27 170 10 4
2013 Dec 28 170 8 3
2013 Dec 29 170 5 2
2013 Dec 30 165 5 2
2013 Dec 31 160 5 2
2014 Jan 01 160 5 2
2014 Jan 02 160 5 2
2014 Jan 03 155 10 4
2014 Jan 04 150 20 5
(NOAA)