Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2013 Dec 30 0227 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 - 29 December 2013
Solar activity reached moderate levels during the period. Region 1928 (S17, L=008 class/area Ekc/460 on 21 Dec) started the week off with an M1/1n flare at 23/0905 UTC before rotating around the west limb on 24 December. Activity decreased to low levels from 24 - 28 Dec with the largest event coming from Region 1936 (S17, L=224 class/area Eac/170 on 29 Dec), a C9/Sn flare at 28/1802 UTC. On 28 December, around 28/1720 UTC, GOES 15 SXI and SDO/AIA imagery observed movement and enhanced brightening on the west limb. Shortly after, SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery detected a fast moving CME lifting off the west limb, first visible at 28/1800 UTC. The CME was determined too far west to be geoeffective however it was likely the cause of the greater than 10 MeV proton event to be discussed in the next
section. Moderate levels were experienced on 29 December as Region 1936 produced an M3/1n at 29/0756 UTC. Two filament eruptions were observed early on 29 December near S26E42 between 29/0104 - 0225 UTC. The WSA-Enlil model suggests the ejecta will merge with a high speed stream expected to affect Earth around 02 January.
The greater than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit crossed the 10 pfu alert threshold at 28/2150 UTC, reached a peak of 29 pfu at 28/2315 UTC and the event ended at 29/0645 UTC. The enhancement was likely the result of the large CME observed around the west limb at 28/1800 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet with active to minor storm periods observed at high latitudes on 25 December and an isolated active period on 29 December.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 December - 25 January 2014
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for moderate activity through 25 January. Region 1936 is expected to rotate around the west limb on 04 January but the anticipated return of old Region 1928 keeps chances for M-class activity intact until 17 January when Region 1936 is scheduled to return and finish out the period.
A chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exists through 04 January. Flux levels at geosynchronous orbit are still slightly elevated and Regions 1934 and 1936 are in good position to produce further enhancement should they erupt in the next few days. Probabilities will drop significantly once these regions rotate around the west limb.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly quiet through 31 December. Quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are expected from 01 - 04 January due to a combination of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) and a possible weak impact from the CMEs associated with two filament eruptions observed early on 29 December. Mostly quiet conditions are expected throughout the period with possible unsettled conditions on 10 - 11 January, 14 - 17 January and 23 - 24 January when recurrent CH HSS features are expected to be geoeffective.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Dec 30 0227 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2013-12-30
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2013 Dec 30 140 5 2
2013 Dec 31 130 5 2
2014 Jan 01 135 10 3
2014 Jan 02 140 15 4
2014 Jan 03 150 10 3
2014 Jan 04 150 8 3
2014 Jan 05 155 5 2
2014 Jan 06 155 5 2
2014 Jan 07 150 5 2
2014 Jan 08 140 5 2
2014 Jan 09 140 5 2
2014 Jan 10 135 15 4
2014 Jan 11 140 5 2
2014 Jan 12 135 5 2
2014 Jan 13 145 5 2
2014 Jan 14 145 5 2
2014 Jan 15 150 5 2
2014 Jan 16 150 5 2
2014 Jan 17 150 5 2
2014 Jan 18 150 5 2
2014 Jan 19 145 5 2
2014 Jan 20 140 5 2
2014 Jan 21 140 5 2
2014 Jan 22 135 5 2
2014 Jan 23 135 10 3
2014 Jan 24 135 8 3
2014 Jan 25 140 5 2
(NOAA)