Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Jan 06 0453 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 December - 05 January 2014
Solar activity was at low levels on 30 December and 05 January. Between 31 December through 04 January, solar activity reached moderate levels due to multiple M-class flares from both Regions 1936 (S16, L=225, class/area Eac/280 on 31 December) and 1944 (S09, L=099, class/area Fkc/1480 on 05 January). Region 1936 produced M-class flares on 31 December, 01 January, and 04 January. It also
produced the largest flare of the period, an M9/2b at 01/1852 UTC along with a non-Earth directed coronal mass ejection (CME). On 01 January, Region 1944 rotated onto the southeast limb as one of the largest sunspot groups of solar cycle 24. During the period it produced a total of six M-class flares. The largest of these was a long duration M4 at 04/1946. The source of the flare was actually slightly westward of the sunspots, however extreme ultraviolet imagery showed that the flare loops were connected to the larger leader spot. A Type IV radio sweep and a 550 sfu Tenflare was associated with this flare along with an asymmetric full halo CME (approximate speed of 811 km/s). The CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 04/2148 UTC with the majority of the ejecta slightly south of the ecliptic, however an Earth-directed component was determined to be very likely.
The period started off with the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit enhanced but in decline below the 10 pfu threshold on 30 December which originated from backsided activity on 28 December. By 31 December, proton flux levels had returned to near background levels. Conditions continued at background levels until another enhancement below the 10 pfu threshold was observed beginning at 05/0115 UTC, likely associated with the M4 flare from Region 1944 late on 04 January. Proton flux levels peaked at 0.8 pfu at 05/1405 UTC before beginning to slowly decline by the end of the period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low levels from 30 December through 01 January. High levels were observed on 02 January with a peak flux of 1780 pfu at 02/1950 UTC. From 03 January through the end of the period, the electron flux continuously reached moderate levels. Moderate to high levels were in response to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 30-31 December and again on 04-05 January. On 01 January, total field began to rise to near 17 nT with the Bz component between +9 nT and -14 nT by mid-day on 01 January followed by an increase in solar wind speed and temperature indicative of a co-rotating interaction region followed by a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed rose to a maximum near 670 km/s by 02/2100 UTC before slowly declining towards background levels through the end of the period. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 01 January, quiet to minor storm levels on 02 January, and quiet to unsettled levels on 03 January.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 January - 01 February 2014
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels with a chance for high levels through 15 January when Region 1944 rounds the west limb. Moderate to high levels of activity are again possible after 28 January with the anticipated return of Region 1944. For the remainder of the period, activity is expected to be low with a chance for moderate levels.
There is an increasing chance for proton events at geosynchronous orbit, particularly between 08-15 January as Region 1944 crosses the central meridian and moves towards an ever more favoarable position. The threat decreases after 15 January as Region 1944 rounds the west limb. The remainder of the period should see a low potential for proton events in the absence of any new large region development.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels during the forecast period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active to minor storm levels, with a slight chance for major storm levels early in the period for 07-08 January as a coronal mass ejection observed on 04 January is expected to arrive at Earth. Unsettled to active conditions associated with recurrent coronal hole high speed streams are possible 10-11, 23-24, and 28-30 January. The remainder of the forecast period is expected to see quiet to unsettled conditions in the absence of any other transient features.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 06 0453 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-01-06
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Jan 06 220 5 2
2014 Jan 07 220 15 5
2014 Jan 08 215 18 4
2014 Jan 09 215 5 2
2014 Jan 10 215 12 3
2014 Jan 11 205 8 3
2014 Jan 12 200 5 2
2014 Jan 13 200 5 2
2014 Jan 14 195 5 2
2014 Jan 15 175 5 2
2014 Jan 16 155 5 2
2014 Jan 17 150 5 2
2014 Jan 18 150 5 2
2014 Jan 19 150 5 2
2014 Jan 20 155 5 2
2014 Jan 21 160 5 2
2014 Jan 22 160 5 2
2014 Jan 23 160 10 3
2014 Jan 24 165 8 3
2014 Jan 25 165 5 2
2014 Jan 26 165 5 2
2014 Jan 27 170 5 2
2014 Jan 28 185 10 3
2014 Jan 29 190 18 4
2014 Jan 30 190 8 3
2014 Jan 31 190 5 2
2014 Feb 01 190 5 2
(NOAA)