Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Jan 13 0717 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 - 12 January 2014
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels during the period. Low levels were observed on 06 January and again from 09-12 January with the majority of the solar flare activity originating from Regions 1944 (S09, L=101, class/area Fkc/1560 on 08 January), 1946 (N09, L=103, class/area Dkc/530 on 10 January), and 1947 (N11, L=180, class/area Cro/030 on 06 January). High levels were reached on 07 January due to an M1/1n flare at 07/0353 UTC from Region 1946, an M7/2b flare at 07/1013 UTC with an associated Tenflare (Castelli-U) radio burst (409 sfu) from Region 1944, and an X1/2n at 07/1832 UTC also from Region 1944. The X1 flare was associated with a Type II radio sweep (1064 km/s), a 8300 sfu Tenflare, and a partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) with an approximate speed ranging from 1800 km/s to 2100 km/s. Model output of the CME indicated an Earth-directed component; however the impact on the geomagnetic field was significantly less than expected (see geomagnetic field activity below). By 08 January, solar activity decreased to moderate levels due to an isolated M3/Sf flare from Region 1947 at 08/0347 UTC on the west limb. The M3 flare was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep (697 km/s) and a non-Earth directed CME. Region 1944 was one of the largest sunspot groups in solar cycle 24, maintained a Fkc spot class with a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification for the majority of the period, as well as reaching an impressive 1,560 millionths of areal coverage. By 09 January and through the rest of the reporting period the sunspot group was in a slow decay phase.
The period began with the greater than 10 MeV proton flux recovering from last weeks enhancement likely associated with an M4 flare from Region 1944 late on 04 January. At 06/0820 UTC, both the greater than 10 MeV and 100 MeV proton flux levels began to rise in response to flare activity beyond the west limb from old Region 1936 (S15, L=225) which rotated off the visible disk on 04 January. The greater than 10 MeV protons crossed the 10 pfu (S1 Minor) threshold at 06/0915 UTC and reached a maximum of 42 pfu at 06/1600 UTC before slowly declining to 10.1 pfu by 07/1930 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV protons crossed the 1 pfu threshold at 06/0830 UTC and reached a maximum of 4 pfu at 06/1005 UTC.
The event ended at 06/1710 UTC. By 07/1935 UTC, another influx of energetic particles was observed by GOES 13 related to the X1 flare from Region 1944 at 07/1832 UTC. The 10 MeV proton flux levels were still above the 10 pfu threshold at this time and increased to a maximum of 1033 pfu (S3-Moderate) at 09/0340 UTC before slowly returning below the 10 pfu threshold by 11/2020 UTC. However, there were some fluctuations in the greater than 10 MeV protons early on 12 January with a couple readings above the 10 pfu threshold. The greater than 100 MeV proton event associated with the X-flare reached the 1 pfu threshold at 07/2030 UTC, reached a maximum of 4 pfu at 07/2240 UTC, and ended at 08/1225 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at mostly normal to moderate levels during the period with high levels (2690 pfu) briefly reached on 07 January before the instrument became contaminated due to high proton flux levels late on 07 January through 09 January. By 10 January, electron flux levels recovered and remained in the normal to moderate range for the rest of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels during the period. The geomagnetic field began the period at quiet levels until after mid-day 07 January when a sudden increase in temperature, speed, density, and total field measurements were observed in ACE SWEPAM data indicating the arrival of the 04 January CME. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 350 km/s to 435 km/s with the total field increasing from 3 nT to 7 nT at 07/1428 UTC. This small shock and CME resulted in several periods of unsettled levels late on 07 January through early on 08 January.
Quiet to unsettled levels continued through 09 January. Late on 09 January, the anticipated arrival of the CME associated with the X1 flare on 07 January arrived at the ACE spacecraft at 09/1932 UTC with a less than expected solar wind increase of from approximately 400 km/s to near 527 km/s. Total field measurements increased from 6 nT to 16 nT with the Bz component mostly north between -4 nT and +10 nT. A small sudden impulse (12 nT) was observed in the Fresno magnetometer data at 09/2010 UTC. An isolated unsettled period was observed late on 09 January as a result of CME activity. Nominal solar wind condition continued through late on 12 January with mostly quiet conditions observed. By late on 12 January, a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) began to impact the geomagnetic field. Solar wind speeds increased from approximately 480 km/s to near 680 km/s by the end of the period. The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled to active levels by late on 12 January.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 January - 08 February 2014
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flare activity until Region 1944 rotates off the west limb on 14 January. Very low to low levels are expected from 15-16 January. Low levels with a chance for M-class flare activity is expected from 17 January through 08 February as old Regions 1936 and 1944 return on 17 January and 26 January, respectively.
There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event from 26 January through 08 February when Region 1944 returns on the visible disk assuming it retains its magnetic complexity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels possible from 14-17 January, 29 January, and 03-05 February due to CH HSS activity and recurrence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly quiet with unsettled to active period possible on 13 January, 23-24 January, 28-30 January, and again on 07-08 February due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 13 0717 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-01-13
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Jan 13 155 8 4
2014 Jan 14 145 5 2
2014 Jan 15 140 5 2
2014 Jan 16 140 5 2
2014 Jan 17 145 5 2
2014 Jan 18 140 5 2
2014 Jan 19 140 5 2
2014 Jan 20 130 5 2
2014 Jan 21 125 5 2
2014 Jan 22 125 5 2
2014 Jan 23 125 10 3
2014 Jan 24 125 8 3
2014 Jan 25 130 5 2
2014 Jan 26 135 5 2
2014 Jan 27 145 5 2
2014 Jan 28 155 10 3
2014 Jan 29 155 18 4
2014 Jan 30 160 8 3
2014 Jan 31 170 5 2
2014 Feb 01 175 5 2
2014 Feb 02 180 5 2
2014 Feb 03 180 5 2
2014 Feb 04 180 5 2
2014 Feb 05 180 5 2
2014 Feb 06 175 5 2
2014 Feb 07 165 8 3
2014 Feb 08 155 8 3
(NOAA)