Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Jan 27 0540 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 - 26 January 2014
Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period. The week began with five C-class events on 20 January, four of which were produced by Region 1959 (S24, L=239, class/area Eai/220 on 21 January). The largest flare of that day, and the first six days of the period, however, was a C3/Sf produced by Region 1963 (S06, L=216, class/area Cso/060 on 21 January) at 20/2249 UTC. From 21-25 January, only five C1 to C2 class flares were observed while very low levels were observed on 23 January. January 26th brought an increase in activity when a C6 event was observed at 26/1013 UTC from Region 1960 (S15, L=238, class/area Hkx/270 on 22 January). A C3 x-ray event was observed earlier at 26/0616 UTC from behind the NE limb and shortly after, a C1 x-ray event was observed at 26/0838 UTC from behind the SE limb. Associated with the C1 event were Type II (839 km/s) and 10cm (200 sfu) radio signatures. The activity from behind the east limb appeared to originate in the vicinity of old Regions 1946 (N09, L=103) and 1944 (S09, L=101).
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. Moderate levels were observed on 20 January.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The period began with solar wind speeds near 300 km/s and total field measurements around 4 nT. Subsequently, the geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on 20 January. By 21 January, total field began to increase to a maximum of 487 km/s while the Bz component fluctuated between +/- 6 nT. Solar wind speed increased to a maximum of 605 km/s at 22/0846 UTC as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream became geoeffective. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled conditions on 21 and 22 January. Solar wind speed declined to background levels by 24 January resulting in mostly quiet conditions with isolated unsettled levels from 23 January through the end of the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 January - 22 February 2014
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels overall. Moderate to high levels are possible from 27 January through 09 February with the return of old Regions 1946 and 1944.
The greater than 10 MeV particle flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels during the forecast period. The threat of a solar energetic particle event is expected to be greatest between 03-10 February as old Region 1944 crosses the central meridian into a more potentially geoeffective position.
The greater than 2 MeV particle flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at low to moderate levels through most of the period, with the exception of 03-05 February when a chance for high levels are expected due to recurrence.
The geomagnetic field is expected to begin the period at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for active periods on 27-28 January, in response to a small coronal hole high speed stream. By 29 January, a return to mostly quiet conditions is expected. Recurrent high speed solar wind streams are expected to bring unsettled conditions with a chance for active levels on 07-08 February and
17-18 February. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of the period in the absence of transient features.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 27 0540 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-01-27
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Jan 27 140 8 3
2014 Jan 28 155 12 4
2014 Jan 29 160 5 2
2014 Jan 30 180 5 2
2014 Jan 31 200 5 2
2014 Feb 01 205 5 2
2014 Feb 02 205 5 2
2014 Feb 03 205 5 2
2014 Feb 04 200 5 2
2014 Feb 05 200 5 2
2014 Feb 06 200 5 2
2014 Feb 07 200 8 3
2014 Feb 08 180 8 3
2014 Feb 09 170 5 2
2014 Feb 10 150 5 2
2014 Feb 11 130 5 2
2014 Feb 12 130 5 2
2014 Feb 13 125 5 2
2014 Feb 14 125 5 2
2014 Feb 15 125 5 2
2014 Feb 16 130 5 2
2014 Feb 17 130 8 3
2014 Feb 18 135 8 3
2014 Feb 19 135 5 2
2014 Feb 20 135 5 2
2014 Feb 21 135 5 2
2014 Feb 22 135 5 2
(NOAA)