Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Mar 24 0438 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 - 23 March 2014
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Low levels were observed from 17-19 March with the majority of the C-class flare activity originating from Regions 2010 (S15, L=202, class/area Dac/180 on 23 March) and 2014 (S14, L=169, class/area Dsc/190 on 23 March). Solar activity reached moderate levels on 20 March due to an isolated M1/1f flare at 20/0356 UTC from Region 2010. The event was associated with a Type II (572 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps as well as a non Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME). Solar activity was once again at low levels on 21 March. By 22 March, moderate levels were reached again with an impulsive M1/1f flare at 22/0702 UTC from Region 2011 (S07, L=280, class/area Dho/300 on 22 March). Low levels returned on 23 March with multiple C-class flares observed including a long duration C5/Sf flare at 23/0348 UTC from Region 2014. Associated with this flare was a CME (estimated speed of 768 km/s) with the majority of the ejecta directed off the east limb, however there appeared to be an Earth-directed component that is expected to arrive late on 25 March to early on 26 March.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was generally at quiet levels throughout the period with quiet to unsettled periods observed on 21 March due to prolonged periods of southward Bz. By 22 March, a rise in solar wind speed and temperature was observed at the ACE spacecraft just after a solar sector boundary change into a positive (away) sector.
This was indicative of the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speed increased from approximately 350 km/s to 530 km/s and remained near 480 km/s through the end of the period. Total field measurements reached 10 nT initially during the onset of the CH HSS, however it decreased to near 5 nT by 23 March. Only quiet conditions were observed on 22-23
March.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 March - 19 April 2014
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flares through 25 March and again from 15-19 April. From 26 March through14 April, moderate levels are likely with a chance for X-class flares as old Regions 1996 (N14, L=052) and 2002 (S19, L=326) return to the visible disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions on 24-25 March, 30 March-01 April, 09 April, and again on 7 April due to CH HSS activity and recurrent prolonged periods of the southward Bz component. Late on 25 March to early on 26 March, the 23 March CME is expected to deliver a glancing blow to the geomagnetic field causing quiet to active conditions on 26 March.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Mar 24 0438 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-03-24
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Mar 24 155 10 3
2014 Mar 25 155 8 3
2014 Mar 26 160 12 4
2014 Mar 27 155 5 2
2014 Mar 28 155 5 2
2014 Mar 29 150 5 2
2014 Mar 30 145 8 3
2014 Mar 31 145 8 3
2014 Apr 01 150 8 3
2014 Apr 02 150 5 2
2014 Apr 03 145 5 2
2014 Apr 04 145 5 2
2014 Apr 05 150 5 2
2014 Apr 06 155 5 2
2014 Apr 07 160 5 2
2014 Apr 08 160 5 2
2014 Apr 09 155 10 3
2014 Apr 10 150 5 2
2014 Apr 11 145 5 2
2014 Apr 12 140 5 2
2014 Apr 13 145 5 2
2014 Apr 14 145 5 2
2014 Apr 15 150 5 2
2014 Apr 16 150 5 2
2014 Apr 17 150 8 3
2014 Apr 18 145 7 2
2014 Apr 19 140 7 2
(NOAA)