Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Jun 09 0403 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 - 08 June 2014
Solar activity ranged from very low levels on 02 and 05 June, to low levels on 04, 07 and 08 June to moderate levels on 03 and 06 June. On 03 June, an impulsive M1/2n flare was observed at 03/0409 UTC from Region 2077 (S06, L=300, class/area Dai/110 on 01 Jun). This event was followed by weak C-class activity early on 04 June, also from Region 2077. Between 04/0900 - 1300 UTC, a 22 degree long filament, centered near S24E63, erupted. An asymmetric, full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in Lasco C2 imagery at 04/1325 UTC. Initial analysis of Lasco C2/C3 coronagraph and STEREO B imagery indicated an approximate speed of 521 km/s. Subsequent WSA-Enlil model output suggested the resultant CME would move well south of the ecliptic plane.
Low to moderate levels returned on 06 June with numerous low-level C-class flares observed from Region 2080 (S12, L=261, class/area Dkc/340 on 08 Jun) including an M1/Sf observed at 06/1931 UTC. At 06/1237 UTC, a Type II (637 km/s shock velocity) radio sweep was recorded from enhanced brightenings observed on STEREO-B EUVI imagery from an active region behind the SE limb. On 07 June, Region
2083 (S12, L=353, class/area Bxo/010 on 05 Jun) contributed a pair of weak C-class events. The period ended on 08 June with C-class activity observed off and behind the SE limb in the vicinity of old Region 2065 (S19, L=151). The largest of these events was a C5 X-ray flare at 08/2354 UTC with an associated Type II (890 km/s shock velocity) radio emission.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal levels through the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet to isolated unsettled levels through 07/1500 UTC. During this period, a nominal solar wind environment was present with speeds ranging from about 260 km/s to near 400 km/s. IMF total field strength averaged about 6 nT while the Bz component varied between +6 to -8 nT. Phi was predominately in a positive (away) orientation through about 04/0445 UTC when a switch to a more negative (towards) sector was observed. This orientation was mostly prominent through the remainder of the summary period.
Midday to late on 07 June, solar wind parameters suggested the arrival of a transient perhaps compounded by the presence of a high speed stream. At 07/1609 UTC an interplanetary shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft. Total field measurements increased from 4 nT to 13 nT while wind speed increased from 335 km/s to 457 km/s. The Bz component initially went north near +8 nT before a brief maximum southward deflection of -13 nT occurred at 07/1849 UTC. This shock arrival was attributed to the 04 June SE quadrant filament eruption. Phi remained mostly negative and temperature slowly rose in the wake of the shock. Beginning around 08/0100 UTC, the total field began oscillating, Bz became predominantly southward and solar wind speed began a gradual rise. Wind speed reached 577 km/s by 08/0507 UTC, Bt peaked at 29 nT at 08/0653 UTC while Bz reached a low near -17 nT at 08/0426 UTC. Phi rotated between negative and positive between 07/2300-08/0400 UTC. Around 08/0730 UTC, Bt dropped abruptly and remained below 22 nT afterwards while the oscillations in Bz slowly subsided. By 08/1930 UTC, Bt was steady at about 4 nT while Bz averaged about +1 nT. Wind speeds remained elevated at 600 to 625 km/s through the end of the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 June - 05 July 2014
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels with a chance for moderate activity through the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 09 - 12 June and 21 - 23 June. Normal levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at predominately quiet levels. Quiet to isolated active levels are expected on 09 June due to lingering CME/coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 08, 18-19 and 25-26 June due to recurrent CH HSSs.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jun 09 0403 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-06-09
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Jun 09 155 15 4
2014 Jun 10 160 5 2
2014 Jun 11 165 5 2
2014 Jun 12 160 5 2
2014 Jun 13 155 8 3
2014 Jun 14 155 5 2
2014 Jun 15 145 5 2
2014 Jun 16 140 5 2
2014 Jun 17 140 5 2
2014 Jun 18 135 8 3
2014 Jun 19 130 8 3
2014 Jun 20 130 5 2
2014 Jun 21 130 5 2
2014 Jun 22 120 5 2
2014 Jun 23 115 5 2
2014 Jun 24 110 5 2
2014 Jun 25 110 8 3
2014 Jun 26 115 8 3
2014 Jun 27 115 5 2
2014 Jun 28 115 5 2
2014 Jun 29 120 5 2
2014 Jun 30 120 5 2
2014 Jul 01 115 5 2
2014 Jul 02 115 5 2
2014 Jul 03 110 5 2
2014 Jul 04 105 5 2
2014 Jul 05 110 5 2
(NOAA)