Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Jul 07 0135 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 June - 06 July 2014
Solar activity began the period at low levels with a C3/Sf flare at 30/1318 UTC from Region 2106 (N14, L=260 class/area Dao/140 on 04 Jul). Moderate levels were reached on 01 Jul when Region 2106
produced an M1 at 01/1123 UTC. Despite the vast areal coverage and magnetic complexity of Regions 2104 (S12, L=269 class/area Dkc/470 on 02 Jul), 2106, 2107 (S20, L=261 class/area Dko/340 on 02 Jul), 2108 (S08, L=239 class/area Eki/620 on 06 Jul) and 2109 (S08, L=219 class/area Ekc/830 on 05 Jul) solar activity remained at low levels for the rest of the period. A filament eruption centered near S43E59
was observed lifting off in SDO/AIA 193 imagery between 05/1800 - 06/0300 UTC but the subsequent coronal mass ejection was determined to be well south of the Sun-Earth line and is not expected to be
geoeffective.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels throughout the week with the exception of two isolated unsettled periods on 30 Jun between 0000 - 0300 UTC and 03 July between 0900 - 1200 UTC.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 July - 02 August 2014
Solar activity is likely to be moderate through 15 Jul as Regions 2104, 2106, 2107, 2108 and finally 2109 move across the visible disk and then rotate around the west limb. Low levels are expected with
only a chance for moderate activity from 16 - 24 Jul. Activity is expected to increase on 25 Jul with the anticipated return of these large and magnetically complex regions. Moderate activity is likely throughout the remainder of the period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet from 07 - 08 Jul. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 09 - 17 July with active periods possible on 15 Jul due to effects from a series of
coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS). Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period with the exception of 26 Jul, when a recurrent weak CH HSS is expected to increase
activity to unsettled levels.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jul 07 0135 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-07-07
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Jul 07 205 5 2
2014 Jul 08 205 5 2
2014 Jul 09 205 8 3
2014 Jul 10 190 8 3
2014 Jul 11 170 8 3
2014 Jul 12 160 8 3
2014 Jul 13 140 8 3
2014 Jul 14 135 8 3
2014 Jul 15 120 12 4
2014 Jul 16 110 8 3
2014 Jul 17 110 8 3
2014 Jul 18 110 5 2
2014 Jul 19 105 5 2
2014 Jul 20 100 5 2
2014 Jul 21 100 5 2
2014 Jul 22 95 5 2
2014 Jul 23 95 5 2
2014 Jul 24 100 5 2
2014 Jul 25 110 5 2
2014 Jul 26 125 8 3
2014 Jul 27 135 5 2
2014 Jul 28 140 5 2
2014 Jul 29 160 5 2
2014 Jul 30 160 5 2
2014 Jul 31 170 5 2
2014 Aug 01 175 5 2
2014 Aug 02 185 5 2
(NOAA)