Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Jul 21 0624 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 - 20 July 2014
Solar activity was low, with the only C-class activity observed on the first two days of the week. Region 2009 (S08, L=221, class/area=Hhx/300 on 14 July) produced C1 flares on 14 July at 1246 UTC and 15 July at 0305 UTC as it rotated around the west limb. The remainder of the week was characterized by only B-level activity, with Region 2113 (N07, L=167, class/area=Dao/40 on 14 July) producing a B5 on 16 July at 2300 UTC and a B2 on 18 July at 1756 UTC.
On 18 July, a 17-degree filament eruption centered near N26E09 was observed lifting off the visible disk in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at approximately 0200 UTC. Another filament eruption centered near S24E22 was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at approximately 0748 UTC. Available coronagraph imagery from SOHO and STEREO did not conclusively suggest any Earth-directed coronal
mass ejections (CME) accompanied these events. Later in the week, an prominence erupted from he east limb beginning at approximately 20/0200 UTC. A CME was subsequently observed off the east limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 20/0312 UTC. Neither this, nor other CMEs observed during the week were judged to be particularly geo effective.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels.
Geomagnetic field activity reached unsettled levels from 12-21 UTC on 14 July then declined to quiet levels for the remainder of the week.
On 14 July, a corotating interaction region and negative polarity coronal hole high speed solar wind stream arrived in a geoeffective position. The CIR arrived at the ACE spacecraft around 14/1300 UTC accompanied by a solar sector boundary change from a positive to a negative sector and followed by increasing wind speed and temperature. Remnants of a 09 July CME glancing blow may have been about intermingled with the high speed stream. Wind speed at ACE rose to about 500 km/s between 11-12 UTC on 15 July. It declined afterward; falling to 274 km/s by the end of the week.
Following the CIR arrival at ACE, a geomagnetic sudden impulse of 10 nT was observed at the Boulder magnetometer at 14/1443 UTC. Unsettled conditions were observed for three synoptic periods: 12-15, 15-18 and 18-21 UTC, before returning to quiet levels which persisted through the 20th.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 July - 16 August 2014
Solar activity is expected to begin the forecast period at low to very low levels. By 23 July several large active regions are expected to begin returning to the visible solar disk. These are expected to bring activity to low levels with a chance for moderate level flares (R1 radio blackouts). The threat of moderate or greater activity is expected to persist through 09 August, after which a return to low or very low levels is anticipated.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the forecast period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the majority of the forecast period in the absence of transient features. Unsettled to active conditions are possible associated with high speed solar wind streams on 21-22 July, 25-26 July, 05-06 August and 10-11 August.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jul 21 0624 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-07-21
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Jul 21 90 8 3
2014 Jul 22 90 8 3
2014 Jul 23 100 5 2
2014 Jul 24 105 5 2
2014 Jul 25 110 10 3
2014 Jul 26 115 8 3
2014 Jul 27 115 5 2
2014 Jul 28 125 5 2
2014 Jul 29 140 5 2
2014 Jul 30 145 5 2
2014 Jul 31 145 5 2
2014 Aug 01 150 5 2
2014 Aug 02 155 5 2
2014 Aug 03 150 5 2
2014 Aug 04 150 5 2
2014 Aug 05 150 8 3
2014 Aug 06 145 8 3
2014 Aug 07 140 5 2
2014 Aug 08 135 5 2
2014 Aug 09 125 5 2
2014 Aug 10 120 8 3
2014 Aug 11 115 8 3
2014 Aug 12 110 5 2
2014 Aug 13 105 5 2
2014 Aug 14 105 5 2
2014 Aug 15 100 5 2
2014 Aug 16 95 5 2
(NOAA)