Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Jul 28 0505 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 - 27 July 2014
Solar activity was at very low levels on 21 - 23 July with several B-class events obsered. Activity increased to low levels on 24 - 27 July with a few weak C-class events recorded. Region 2121 (N07, L=317, class/area Cao/210 on 24 Jul) produced a C2/1f flare at 24/0151 UTC. At 25/0702 UTC, this same region produced a C2/1n flare with an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock
velocity of 1090 km/s.
26 July saw a C1 x-ray event from Region 2125 (S13, L=266, class/area Cao/040 on 27 Jul) at 0504 UTC. This was followed by a trio of C1 events from Region 2123 (S14, L=323, class/area Dao/040 on 24 Jul) at 1143 UTC, 1210 UTC and 1320 UTC. The period ended on 27 July with a C2/Sf flare at 0551 UTC from Region 2125 followed by a C1 event from Region 2127 (S08, L=248, class/area Dao/080 on 27
Jul).
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels.
Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet levels with isolated unsettled periods observed late on 23 July and again early on 25 July. Sustained southward Bz, associated with a solar sector boundary crossing, was responsible for the unsettled periods late on the 23rd while a weak positive polarity coronal hole high speed influenced the magnetic field early on the 25th.
Solar wind parameters reflected the quiet to isolated unsettled conditions during the summary period. Solar wind speeds ranged from a low of about 270 km/s early in the period, peaking at near 425 km/s midday on 26 July and finishing the period at about 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field Bt ranged from 2 to 8 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 7 nT. The phi component began the period in a positive (away) orientation, switched to a more negative (towards) sector midday on 21 July and remained so through about 23/1600 UTC when the phi angle became variable through 24/1145 UTC. For the balance of the period, phi settled into a more positive orientation.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 July - 23 August 2014
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels through the outlook period with a chance for moderate level activity (R1 radio blackouts) from 28 July - 09 August due to the presence of several complex regions on the disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be normal to isolated moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the majority of the outlook period in the abserce of transient features. Unsettled to active conditions are possible associated with high speed solar wind streams on 28 - 29 July, 05 - 06 August, 10 August and 22 August.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jul 28 0505 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-07-28
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Jul 28 130 12 4
2014 Jul 29 135 10 3
2014 Jul 30 135 5 2
2014 Jul 31 140 5 2
2014 Aug 01 140 5 2
2014 Aug 02 140 5 2
2014 Aug 03 135 5 2
2014 Aug 04 135 5 2
2014 Aug 05 130 8 3
2014 Aug 06 125 8 3
2014 Aug 07 120 5 2
2014 Aug 08 115 5 2
2014 Aug 09 110 5 2
2014 Aug 10 105 8 3
2014 Aug 11 100 5 2
2014 Aug 12 95 5 2
2014 Aug 13 90 5 2
2014 Aug 14 90 5 2
2014 Aug 15 90 5 2
2014 Aug 16 95 5 2
2014 Aug 17 95 5 2
2014 Aug 18 100 5 2
2014 Aug 19 105 5 2
2014 Aug 20 105 5 2
2014 Aug 21 105 5 2
2014 Aug 22 100 8 3
2014 Aug 23 95 5 2
(NOAA)