Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Sep 01 0657 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 - 31 August 2014
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels during the period. Moderate levels were observed on 25 August due to a pair of M-flares originating from Region 2146 (N07, L=344, class/area Dki/300 on 26 August). The first was a M2/1b flare at 25/1511 UTC with associated Type II (707 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, a Ten cm radio burst (150 sfu), and a coronal mass ejection (CME) primarily off the west
limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 25/1548 UTC. The second flare was an M3 at 25/2021 UTC which also had a CME off the west limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 25/2048 UTC. Both CMEs were determined to be directed too far west to be geoeffective. The rest of the period was populated with numerous low to mid-level C-class flares, the majority of which were from Regions 2146 and
2149 (N09, L=284, class/area Dkc/280 on 31 August).
An enhancement of the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was observed beginning at approximately 25/2125 UTC likely associated with the M-class flares from Region 2146. A peak flux value of 1.4 pfu (below S1-Minor) was observed at 25/2300 UTC and thereafter gradually returned to background levels by 27 August.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 27 August, moderate levels on 25-26 August and again from 28-29 August. High levels were reached on 30-31 August with the flux of 1,510 pfu observed at 30/1550 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity started at quiet levels on 25-26 August. By early on 27 August, total field increased from 5 nT to a maximum of 15 nT by 27/0848 UTC, solar wind speed slowly increased, and the Bz component went south for the majority of the day reaching a maximum of -14 nT indicative of the arrival of a pair of CMEs that were associated with flare activity from Region 2146 on 22 August. Solar wind continued to slowly increase through 29 August when it became variable between approximately 380 km/s to 480 km/s. Phi angle became mostly positive (away) by late on 27 August and remained so during the rest of the period. This was indicative of a slow transition from CME activity into positive polarity coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS) by mid to late on 28 August. The geomagnetic field responded with mostly quiet to active conditions from 27 August through 31 August with isolated minor storm periods observed on 28-29 August. Periods of major storm levels were observed at high latitudes on 27-28 August and again on 30-31 August with an isolated severe storm period observed on 29 August.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 September - 27 September 2014
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flaring from 01-09 September. Beginning on 10 September and lasting through the end of the forecast period, M-class flare probabilities are expected to increase to a chance as old Regions 2146, 2149, and 2151 (S08,
L=253, class/area Cso/140 on 25 August) return to the visible disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 01-03, 07-09, and 27 September due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active levels from 01-08, 13, and 25-27 September due to CH HSS activity as well as possible recurrent solar sector boundary crossings.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Sep 01 0657 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-09-01
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Sep 01 130 12 4
2014 Sep 02 130 8 3
2014 Sep 03 125 8 3
2014 Sep 04 120 10 4
2014 Sep 05 115 8 3
2014 Sep 06 110 10 4
2014 Sep 07 105 8 3
2014 Sep 08 105 12 4
2014 Sep 09 105 5 2
2014 Sep 10 110 5 2
2014 Sep 11 115 5 2
2014 Sep 12 115 5 2
2014 Sep 13 115 8 3
2014 Sep 14 110 5 2
2014 Sep 15 110 5 2
2014 Sep 16 120 5 2
2014 Sep 17 130 5 2
2014 Sep 18 130 5 2
2014 Sep 19 130 5 2
2014 Sep 20 135 5 2
2014 Sep 21 135 5 2
2014 Sep 22 130 5 2
2014 Sep 23 125 5 2
2014 Sep 24 120 5 2
2014 Sep 25 115 12 4
2014 Sep 26 115 18 4
2014 Sep 27 125 15 4
(NOAA)