Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Sep 08 0624 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 - 07 September 2014
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels during the period. Moderate levels were first observed with an M2/Sf flare at 03/1354 UTC from Region 2152 (S15, L=206, class/area Eki/310 on 04 September). An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 03/1400 UTC but was determined to not contain an Earth-directed component. Moderate levels were again reached with an M1/Sf flare at 06/1709 UTC from Region 2157 (S14,L=98, class/area Ekc/540 on 06 September). The majority of the C-class flare activity during the rest of the period was primarily from Region 2152 and 2157. A 44 degree long filament, centered near 32W14, erupted between 02/1300-1600 UTC and did contain a geo effective component. WSA/ENLIL modeling of the event showed an arrival time early to midday on 06 September.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was enhanced between 02 September and 07 September as a result of a far-sided event that occurred on 02 September, but remained below alert level thresholds throughout the period. A peak value 9.7 pfu
was reached at 06/0740 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 01-05 September, moderate levels on 06 September, and returned to normal background levels. A peak value of 6,110 pfu was reached at 02/1620 UTC.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels during the period. Quiet to unsettled levels occurred from 01-04 September as a result of coronal high-speed stream influence that ranged between approximately 400-450 km/s. Quiet conditions returned on 05 September. Solar wind conditions were once again enhanced on 06 September due to a solar sector boundary crossing that was observed at 06/0434 UTC. Total field measurements increased from 5 nT to 11 nT while the Bz component went briefly south to -9 nT. The total field became further enhanced to 12 nT and the Bz component deflected southward to -7 nT for approximately nine hours after midday on 06 September as the 02 September CME began to influence the Earth's magnetic field. A sudden impulse of 63 nT was observed at the College magnetometer at 06/1525 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled conditions for the remainder of the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 September - 04 October 2014
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) with a chance for X-class flaring (R3-Strong or greater) until 16 Sep when Regions 2157 and 2158 (N16, L=88, class/area Dkc/380 on 07 September) depart the visible disk. For the rest of the period, Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares due to the return of old Regions 2146 (N07, L=344), 2149 (N09, L=284), and 2151 (S08, L=253)
There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event from 08-17 Sep due to potential significant flare activity from Regions 2157 and 2158.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels between 11-14 September and again on 27 September through 04 October due to coronal hole high-speed stream effects.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach quiet to unsettled levels on 08, 10-11, 13, and 28-30 September while unsettled to active levels are expected from 25-27 September due to recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Sep 08 0624 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-09-08
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Sep 08 140 10 3
2014 Sep 09 145 5 2
2014 Sep 10 150 8 3
2014 Sep 11 150 8 3
2014 Sep 12 150 5 2
2014 Sep 13 150 8 3
2014 Sep 14 150 5 2
2014 Sep 15 155 5 2
2014 Sep 16 140 5 2
2014 Sep 17 145 5 2
2014 Sep 18 140 5 2
2014 Sep 19 145 5 2
2014 Sep 20 145 5 2
2014 Sep 21 150 5 2
2014 Sep 22 145 5 2
2014 Sep 23 135 5 2
2014 Sep 24 130 5 2
2014 Sep 25 130 18 4
2014 Sep 26 125 15 4
2014 Sep 27 125 15 4
2014 Sep 28 130 12 3
2014 Sep 29 145 12 3
2014 Sep 30 145 10 3
2014 Oct 01 150 5 2
2014 Oct 02 145 5 2
2014 Oct 03 140 5 2
2014 Oct 04 135 5 2
(NOAA)