Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Oct 06 0253 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 September - 05 October 2014
Solar activity reached high levels this period. Region 2173 (S17, L=250, class/area=Dac/160 on 28 Sep) produced an M7/1f flare on 02 Oct at 1901 UTC while crossing the west limb. Associated Type-II (est. speed 714 km/s) and Type-IV radio emissions were observed with this event. Region 2172 (S11, L=239, class/area=Ekc/570 on 23 Sep) produced an M1/Sf flare on 02 Oct at 1744 UTC. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed off the southwest limb with both of these events, but the proximity of the source regions and event times in addition to incomplete SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery made it difficult to differentiate between the two CMEs. Subsequent analysis determined that these CMEs were directed well west of the Sun-Earth line. Regions 2172 and 2173 were the most productive regions this period and were also responsible for additional low to mid-level C-class flare activity. Two filament eruptions were observed on 02 Oct, the first of which was centered near N18W07 and erupted at 0330 UTC and the second was centered near N29W09 and erupted at 0550 UTC. SDO/AIA 193 and 304 imagery indicated that the bulk of the ejecta with the filament eruptions were reabsorbed and no subsequent CME signatures were observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels on 30 Sep and 03-05 Oct but reached high levels on 29 Sep and 01-02 Oct, reaching a maximum flux value of 1630 pfu on 01 Oct at 1720 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels under a nominal solar wind regime. Isolated periods of active geomagnetic field activity were observed on 29 Sep (1800-2100 UTC), 30 Sep (0300-0600 UTC and 0900-1200 UTC), and 01 Oct (0000-0300 UTC) due to multiple current sheet crossings and prolonged southward Bz.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 October - 01 November 2014
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flare activity for 15-28 Oct as Regions 2172 (S11, L=239), 2173 (S17, L=250), and 2175 (N17, L=262) return to the visible disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for 06-11 Oct and 15-25 Oct with a chance for high levels on 12-15 Oct and 26 Oct-01 Nov due an enhanced solar wind environment caused by the influence of several coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSSs).
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet for 08-10, 12-14, 18, and 30 Oct due to a predominately nominal solar wind regime. Quiet to unsettled activity is expected for 06-07, 11, 15, 17, 19-20, 25-29, 31 Oct, and 01 Nov due to the weak influence of multiple CH HSSs. Active conditions are expected for 16, 22-24 Oct due to the moderate influence of multiple CH HSSs. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 21 Oct due to strong positive polarity CH HSS effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Oct 06 0253 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-10-06
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Oct 06 125 8 3
2014 Oct 07 120 8 3
2014 Oct 08 120 5 2
2014 Oct 09 120 5 2
2014 Oct 10 115 5 2
2014 Oct 11 110 8 3
2014 Oct 12 110 5 2
2014 Oct 13 110 5 2
2014 Oct 14 120 5 2
2014 Oct 15 130 8 3
2014 Oct 16 145 15 4
2014 Oct 17 145 8 3
2014 Oct 18 145 5 2
2014 Oct 19 140 8 3
2014 Oct 20 135 10 3
2014 Oct 21 135 20 5
2014 Oct 22 140 15 4
2014 Oct 23 140 15 4
2014 Oct 24 140 15 4
2014 Oct 25 140 10 3
2014 Oct 26 135 10 3
2014 Oct 27 130 10 3
2014 Oct 28 125 10 3
2014 Oct 29 125 8 3
2014 Oct 30 120 5 2
2014 Oct 31 120 8 3
2014 Nov 01 125 8 3
(NOAA)