Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Oct 13 0503 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 - 12 October 2014
Solar activity was at low levels for 06-08, 10-12 Oct but reached moderate levels on 09 Oct. Low level solar activity early in the period increased to moderate levels as Region 2182 (S14, L=123,
class/area=Dac/170 on 09 Oct) produced two M-class flares in rapid succession early on 09 Oct, followed by a third M-class flare a few hours later. The first two moderate level flares from Region 2182 were a pair of M1 flares at 0143 UTC and 0158 UTC on 09 Oct, with the first flare having an associated optical component measured at 1f. The third flare from Region 2182 was an M1/1n flare at 0659 UTC on 09 Oct. Region 2182 produced numerous C-class flares before rotating around the western limb on 12 Oct. A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the first two M-class flares was observed leaving the west limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 09/0336 UTC. A second CME associated with the third M-class flare was observed leaving the west limb in C2 imagery beginning at 09/1348 UTC. Subsequent analysis determined that these CMEs were directed well west of the Sun-Earth line. Solar activity returned to low levels on 10 Oct and persisted through the remainder of the period. Region 2187 (S09, L=321, class/area=Cso/120 on 12 Oct) rotated onto the visible disk on 11 Oct and produced low-level C-class flare activity late in the period, the largest of which was a C3 flare at 10/1647 UTC while the region was on the eastern limb.
A Hyder flare was observed in conjunction with a filament eruption (estimated at 10-15 degrees). The filament was centered near S13W51 and was observed erupting in SDO/AIA 304 imagery between 1538-1809 UTC on 10 Oct. A subsequent CME was observed off the southwest limb in C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 10/1612 UTC. WSA-ENLIL model output and forecaster analysis indicate that this CME was predominately south and west of the Sun-Earth line but a possible weak glancing blow late 13 Oct/early 14 Oct has not been completely ruled out. An additional filament liftoff (estimated at 8 degrees) centered near N10W15 was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 11/1854 UTC, but appeared to be reabsorbed. Late in the period, an eruption behind the west limb was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 12/2340 UTC. Due to missing STEREO satellite imagery, it is unclear whether this eruption is associated with a filament liftoff or flare activity from the vicinity of old Region 2182. A subsequent CME was observed off the west limb in C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 13/0000 UTC but is not expected to be Earth-directed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels on 06-09 Oct and decreased to low levels for 10-12 Oct.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 06-08, 10-11 Oct with quiet conditions prevailing on 12 Oct under a nominal solar wind regime. Quiet to unsettled levels with active conditions between 0300-0900 UTC were observed on 09 Oct due to a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) followed by an extended period of southward Bz.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 October - 08 November 2014
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels for 13-14, 29-31 Oct, and 01-08 Nov. Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity for 15-28 Oct as old Regions 2172 (S12, L=241) and 2173 (S17, L=250) return to the visible disk. Regions 2172 and 2173 were very active (five M-class flares between the two regions) and produced significant solar activity last rotation.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring any significant flare activity from Regions 2172 or 2173.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels on 13, 17-18, 30-31 Oct and 01-03, and 08 Nov under a nominal solar wind regime. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 14-16, 19-20, 25-29 Oct and 04-07 Nov due weak coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 21 Oct followed by periods of active geomagnetic field activity on 22-24 Oct due to effects of a strong positive polarity CH HSS.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Oct 13 0503 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-10-13
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Oct 13 110 5 2
2014 Oct 14 120 8 3
2014 Oct 15 125 8 3
2014 Oct 16 125 8 3
2014 Oct 17 130 5 2
2014 Oct 18 130 5 2
2014 Oct 19 130 8 3
2014 Oct 20 135 10 3
2014 Oct 21 135 20 5
2014 Oct 22 140 15 4
2014 Oct 23 140 15 4
2014 Oct 24 140 15 4
2014 Oct 25 140 10 3
2014 Oct 26 135 10 3
2014 Oct 27 130 10 3
2014 Oct 28 125 10 3
2014 Oct 29 125 8 3
2014 Oct 30 120 5 2
2014 Oct 31 120 5 2
2014 Nov 01 125 5 2
2014 Nov 02 125 5 2
2014 Nov 03 120 5 2
2014 Nov 04 120 8 3
2014 Nov 05 115 10 3
2014 Nov 06 115 8 3
2014 Nov 07 110 8 3
2014 Nov 08 110 5 2
