Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Nov 10 0642 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 - 09 November 2014
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels with Region 2205 (N15, L=011, class/area Ekc/410 on 07 Nov) responsible for the majority of the activity during the period.
The period began with high levels as Region 2205 produced an M2 x-ray event at 03/1153 UTC with an associated Type II sweep (517 km/s) followed by an M6/1f flare at 03/2240 UTC with another Type II sweep (601 km/s). 04 November saw activity decreased to moderate levels with a pair of M2 flares from Region 2205 at 04/0838 UTC and 04/0904 UTC respectively. On 05 November, high levels were observed as Region 2205 produced an M7/1n flare at 05/0947 UTC with an associated Castelli-U radio signature to include a 240 sfu Tenflare. Later in the day, the region produced a long duration (LDE) M2/1n flare at 05/1944 UTC with an associated Type II sweep (1291 km/s).
High levels continued on 06 November with Region 2205 producing an M5/1n flare at 06/0346 UTC with associated Type II (732 km/s) and Type IV sweeps. The region also produced an M3/2n flare at 06/0139 UTC and an M2/1n flare at 2216 UTC with an associated 200 sfu Tenflare.
High levels were observed on 07 November which began with an M2/2n LDE from Region 2205 at 07/0249 UTC followed by an M2 x-ray event at 07/0425 UTC and an M1/Sf at 07/1022 UTC. Later on the 7th, the region produced an X1 x-ray event at 07/1726 UTC with associated Type II (602 km/s) and Type IV sweeps. Also associated with this event was a partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) first observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery at 07/1808 UTC. Subsequent WSA/Enlil model output suggested a glancing blow Earth impact early to midday on 10 November.
Low levels were observed on 08 November with numerous low-level C-class flares observed from Region 2205, 2201 (S04, L=089, class/area Dai/070 on 06 Nov) and 2203 (N12, L=115, class/area Dao/200 on 03 Nov). The summary period ended on 09 November with a return to moderate levels as Region 2205 produced an M2/1b flare at 09/1532 UTC
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. However, flux levels began the period enhanced due to the Hyder flare observed early on 01 November. The period began with flux levels at 7 pfu and finally declined to background levels early on 05 November.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 03 and 04 November and normal levels on 05-09 November.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 03 and 06-09 November while quiet to active levels occured on 04-05 November. Activity levels were dominated by numerous solar sector boundary changes (SSBC) and persistant periods of -Bz. No discernible transient or coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influences were observed during the period. The ACE satellite observed solar wind speeds that ranged from a low of about 375 km/s late on 03 November to a high near 600 km/s late on 05 November. The interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) recorded a variable field that ranged from a low of 1 nT early on 03 November to a peak of 14 nT midday on the 4th. The Bz component generally ranged from +/- 5 nT or less. Increased Bz variability was observed from about 04/0015 UTC - 05/0845 UTC (+8 nT to -12 nT), 07/1738 UTC - 07/2106 UTC (+9 nT to -8 nT) and again from 09/1452 UTC - 09/2359 UTC (+/-10 nT).
The phi angle reflected a mostly negative (towards) orientation through the period. Intermittent changes in orientation from a negative to a positive (away) sector were observed from 03/0027 UTC - 03/1101 UTC, 04/0626 UTC - 05/1316 UTC, 07/0025 UTC - 07/0911 UTC and 09/2233 UTC - 09/2359 UTC.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 November - 06 December 2014
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low to moderate levels with isolated high activity from 10 - 23 November and again from 29 November - 06 December. This forecast activity is due to Region 2205, currently on the visible disk through 17 November and the return of old Region 2192 (S12, L=248) due to return late on 11 November. Mostly low level activity is expected for the remainder of the outlook period from 24 - 28 November.
A slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit exist for a majority of the period with the exception of 24 - 28 November due to potential significant flare activity from Region 2205 and the return of old Region 2192.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels from 10 - 13 November and again from 02 - 06 December. Moderate to high levels are expected from 14 November - 01 December.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active to major storm levels on 10 - 11 November due to influences from the 07 November CME and negative polarity CH HSS effects. From 12 - 24 November and again from 03 - 06 December, quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods are expected due to a combination of CH HSS and SSBC effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 25 November - 02 December.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Nov 10 0642 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-11-10
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Nov 10 135 34 6
2014 Nov 11 145 18 5
2014 Nov 12 150 8 3
2014 Nov 13 155 8 3
2014 Nov 14 155 8 3
2014 Nov 15 155 8 3
2014 Nov 16 150 12 4
2014 Nov 17 170 12 4
2014 Nov 18 190 10 3
2014 Nov 19 200 8 3
2014 Nov 20 200 8 3
2014 Nov 21 195 8 3
2014 Nov 22 190 12 4
2014 Nov 23 170 12 4
2014 Nov 24 150 12 4
2014 Nov 25 135 8 3
2014 Nov 26 125 5 2
2014 Nov 27 105 5 2
2014 Nov 28 105 5 2
2014 Nov 29 100 5 2
2014 Nov 30 100 5 2
2014 Dec 01 90 5 2
2014 Dec 02 90 5 2
2014 Dec 03 90 8 3
2014 Dec 04 85 12 4
2014 Dec 05 80 12 4
2014 Dec 06 85 12 4
(NOAA)