Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Nov 17 0442 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 November 2014
Solar activity levels ranged from low to high. Low levels were observed on 10-14 November, moderate levels on 15 November and high levels on 16 November. Regions 2205 (N15, L=001, class/area Ekc/410 on 07 Nov), 2208 (S11, L=307, class/area Esc/160 on 12 Nov) and 2209 (S14, L=254, class/area Fkc/940 on 16 Nov) produced the majority of the activity. Region 2205 produced 19 C-class flares, the largest a C7/Sb on 10/0222 UTC. Region 2208 produced 8 low-level C-class flares while Region 2209 produced 13 C-class and 3 M-class flares.
At 13/0607 UTC, Region 2209 produced a C8 x-ray event. Moderate level activity was observed on 15 November with a pair of M-class flares from Region 2209. The region produced an M3/Sb at 15/1203 UTC followed by an M3/1n at 15/2050 UTC. Both events were associated with weak to moderate radio emissions including a pair of Tenflares (226 sfu and 240 sfu) respectively. The period ended at high levels on 16 November when Region 2209 produced an M5 x-ray event with an
associated 300 sfu Tenflare.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 10-14 November, moderate levels on 15 November and high levels on 16 November.
Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm intervals observed midday on 10 November and again late on 11 November. The period began on 10 November with mostly unsettled to active levels and an isolated minor storm period midday on the 10th. This activity was due to the arrival of the 07 November CME early on the 10th combined with effects from a weak, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). 11-14 November saw mostly quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active to minor storm periods late on the 11th and early on the 12th. Extended periods of southward Bz, elevated wind speeds and a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) contributed to the activity during this time frame. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions were observed during 15-16 November due to effects from a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) in advance of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.
Solar wind parameters reflected the geomagnetic activity described above. IMF total field (Bt) began the period at 22 nT before relaxing to a fairly steady 5-8 nT by 11 November. Bt remained at these levels through the balance of the period. The Bz component was highly variable between +20 nT to -10 nT through 11 November. As with the total field, Bz relaxed to not vary much beyond +/- 8 nT through the remainder of the period. Solar wind averaged about 500 km/s through late on 14 November when a gradual increase in speed was observed to peak at about 675 km/s on 16/0600 UTC. The period ended with wind speed near 500 km/s. Phi angle was in a predominately negative (towards) orientation through about 14/0530 UTC when a switch to a more positive (away) sector was observed.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 November - 13 December 2014
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low to moderate levels with isolated high activity from 17-25 November due to active Region 2209. The exit of Region 2209 will see a decrease in solar activity to mostly low levels from 26 November - 06 December. From 07-13 December, a return to predominately low to moderate levels with isolated high activity is forecated due to the return of old Region 2209.
A slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit exists from 17-25 November and from 07-13 December due to potential significant flare activity from Region 2209 through 25 November, and again after 07 December upon the region's return.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be moderate to high levels from 17 November to 01 December, normal to moderate levels from 02-11 December, and moderate to high levels from 12-13 December.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 17-24 November, 04-06 December and 11-13 December due to a combination of CIR/CH HSS and SSBC effects. Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated for the remainder of the outlook period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Nov 17 0442 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-11-17
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Nov 17 165 18 4
2014 Nov 18 170 12 4
2014 Nov 19 170 10 3
2014 Nov 20 170 8 3
2014 Nov 21 175 10 3
2014 Nov 22 175 12 4
2014 Nov 23 175 8 3
2014 Nov 24 165 8 3
2014 Nov 25 160 5 2
2014 Nov 26 140 5 2
2014 Nov 27 130 5 2
2014 Nov 28 120 5 2
2014 Nov 29 120 5 2
2014 Nov 30 115 5 2
2014 Dec 01 115 5 2
2014 Dec 02 110 5 2
2014 Dec 03 110 5 2
2014 Dec 04 115 12 4
2014 Dec 05 115 10 3
2014 Dec 06 135 8 3
2014 Dec 07 155 5 2
2014 Dec 08 165 5 2
2014 Dec 09 165 5 2
2014 Dec 10 165 5 2
2014 Dec 11 160 10 3
2014 Dec 12 160 15 5
2014 Dec 13 160 20 5
(NOAA)