Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 12 1510 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
# Geophysical Alert Message
#
Solar-terrestrial indices for 11 January follow.
Solar flux 154 and estimated planetary A-index 10.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 12 January was 3.
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.
Product: Advisory Outlook advisory-outlook.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 12 0520 UTC
#
# Prepared by the Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #15-2
2015 January 11 at 10:15 p.m. MST (2015 January 12 0515 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For January 5-11
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming was observed on 05 January due to coronal hole high speed stream activity.
G2 (Moderate) to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming was observed on 07 January due to activity possibly associated with a co-rotating interaction region coupled with a coronal mass ejection.
Outlook For January 12-18
A chance exists for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts for the forecast period due to potential flare activity from Regions 2255 or 2257 along with the return of old Region 2249.
Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Jan 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 12-Jan 14 2015 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 12-Jan 14 2015
Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14
00-03UT 0 3 2
03-06UT 1 2 1
06-09UT 1 2 1
09-12UT 2 2 1
12-15UT 2 2 1
15-18UT 2 2 1
18-21UT 3 2 2
21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 12-Jan 14 2015
Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 12-Jan 14 2015
Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a chance for an M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong) mainly from Regions
2257, 2259 and 2260 during the next three days (12-14 Jan).