Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Feb 23 0555 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 - 22 February 2015
Solar activity began the period with very low levels on 16-17 February with a few B-class flares observed from Region 2282 (N11, L-187, class/area Eho/250 on 11 Feb). Activity increased to low levels on 18-21 February with weak C-class flares observed from Regions 2282 and 2286 (S18, L=193, class/area Cao/030 on 18 Feb). During this time frame, the largest events were a C3/Sf flare at 18/2207 UTC from Region 2282 and a long duration C2 x-ray event on 20/1522 UTC from departed Region 2286. By 22 February, activity declined to very low levels. During the period, no Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. However, a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement was observed beginning midday on 21 February and remained enhanced through period's end. Peak flux reached 1.3 pfu at 21/1925 UTC. The enhancement was due to effects from a large CME whose origin was a large filament eruption located backside in the south central portion of the disk.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 16, 19-21 February and normal levels on 17-18 and 22 February.
Geomagnetic field activity was generally quiet to unsettled throughout the week with periods of active to isolated minor storm periods on 17-18 February. This activity was due to high speed winds from a negative polarity, trans-equatorial coronal hole. Solar wind speeds were mostly nominal through the period at 325-350 km/s but reached a peak of about 485 km/s early on 18 February. IMF total field averaged about 5 nT with a maximum of 16 nT observed early on 17 February. The Bz component did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT for a majority of the period. However, during the coronal hole influence, Bz ranged from +14 to -12 nT. Phi was in a predominately negative (towards) orientation throughout the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 February - 21 March 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels through about 04 March. From 05-18 March, a chance for moderate activity exists due to the return of old Region 2282 (N11, L=191) which was an M-class flare producer on its last transit. Upon old Region 2282's exit, very low to low conditions are expected from 19-21 March.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit in the absence of any significant solar activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout a majority of the outlook period. However, moderate to high levels are likely on 01-09 March and again on 15-19 March due to coronal hole high speed
stream activity.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels throughout the outlook period with active conditions likely on 27-28 February, 01-02 March and 16-17 March due to coronal hole high speed stream activity.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Feb 23 0555 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2015-02-23
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Feb 23 120 10 3
2015 Feb 24 120 8 3
2015 Feb 25 130 8 3
2015 Feb 26 130 8 3
2015 Feb 27 130 15 4
2015 Feb 28 130 18 4
2015 Mar 01 130 18 4
2015 Mar 02 125 12 3
2015 Mar 03 125 10 3
2015 Mar 04 125 10 3
2015 Mar 05 125 5 2
2015 Mar 06 130 7 2
2015 Mar 07 135 10 3
2015 Mar 08 135 10 3
2015 Mar 09 135 5 2
2015 Mar 10 130 5 2
2015 Mar 11 125 5 2
2015 Mar 12 125 5 2
2015 Mar 13 120 5 2
2015 Mar 14 120 10 3
2015 Mar 15 120 5 2
2015 Mar 16 120 15 4
2015 Mar 17 120 15 4
2015 Mar 18 115 8 3
2015 Mar 19 115 5 2
2015 Mar 20 115 5 2
2015 Mar 21 115 5 2
(NOAA)