Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Mar 02 0412 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
23 February - 01 March 2015
Solar activity was at very low to low levels. A few weak C-class flares were observed from Region 2294 (S14, L=023, class/area Dai/090 on 28 Feb). Weak to mid-level flares were observed from Region 2290 (N20, L=055, class/area Dai/070 on 24 Feb) including a C5/Sf flare at 28/0939 UTC and a C6.8 flare at 01/1613 UTC. Numerous CMEs were observed during the period including a pair of back-sided full-halo CMEs observed early and late on 28 Feb. None of the CMEs were determined to be Earth-directed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. However, slight enhancements above background were observed on 23 Feb and 27-28 Feb due to back-sided activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 23-24 Feb and again on 01 Mar. Moderate levels were observed on 25-28 Feb with a peak flux of 367 pfu observed at 27/1650 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to minor storm levels on 23-24 Feb due to effects from a positive polarity, trans-equatorial coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet to unsettled levels predominated on 25 Feb through midday on 28 Feb. Activity increased to quiet to minor storm levels midday on 28 Feb through 01 Mar due to a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) in advance of a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS.
Measurements from the ACE satellite indicated high speed winds near 550 km/s early on 24 Feb. IMF Bt peaked at 15 nT midday on 23 Feb while the Bz component varied between +14 to -13 nT on 23-24 Feb. Phi angle was in a predominately positive (away) sector through early on 27 Feb.
Wind parameters decayed to nominal conditions through midday on 28 Feb when CIR effects were observed through the end of the period. Wind speeds increased to near 600 km/s early on 01 Mar. IMF Bt increased to a peak of 14 nT by 28/2000 UTC while the Bz component
rotated between +8 nT to -10 nT from late on the 28th through early on the 1st. Phi angle was in a mostly negative (towards) sector, with some positive rotation, from early on 27 Feb through the end of the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 March - 28 March 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels on 02-04 Mar and 19-28 Mar. From 05-18 Mar, R1 (minor) activity is possible due to the return of old Region 2282 (N11, L=191), an M-class producer on its previous transit.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit in the absence of any significant solar activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 02-04 Mar and normal to moderate levels from 05-28 Mar.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels throughout the outlook period. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 02-04 Mar, 07-08 Mar, 14 Mar, 16-18 Mar, 22-24 Mar and 27-28 Mar with minor storm (G1-minor) activity possible on 02 Mar and 28 Mar due to numerous recurrent coronal hole high speed streams.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 02 0413 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2015-03-02
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Mar 02 130 25 5
2015 Mar 03 125 15 4
2015 Mar 04 125 10 3
2015 Mar 05 125 8 3
2015 Mar 06 120 8 3
2015 Mar 07 120 8 3
2015 Mar 08 115 8 3
2015 Mar 09 115 5 2
2015 Mar 10 120 5 2
2015 Mar 11 125 5 2
2015 Mar 12 125 5 2
2015 Mar 13 130 5 2
2015 Mar 14 130 8 3
2015 Mar 15 130 5 2
2015 Mar 16 135 15 4
2015 Mar 17 135 15 4
2015 Mar 18 130 8 3
2015 Mar 19 125 5 2
2015 Mar 20 120 5 2
2015 Mar 21 120 5 2
2015 Mar 22 115 15 4
2015 Mar 23 115 20 4
2015 Mar 24 110 8 3
2015 Mar 25 110 5 2
2015 Mar 26 115 5 2
2015 Mar 27 120 15 4
2015 Mar 28 125 30 5
(NOAA)