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| A Cranky Sun (NOAA) |
Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Mar 23 0401 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 - 22 March 2015
Solar activity was at moderate levels to begin the week. Region 2297 (S17, L=196 class/area Dkc/420 on 13 Mar ) produced a pair of M1/2n flares at 16/1058 UTC and 17/2334 UTC. Solar activity was at very low to low levels for the rest of the week. Region 2302 (N12, L=189 class/area Cai/080 on 19 Mar) produced a C9/Sf at 18/0751 UTC as well as several low-level C-class events. Region 2297 also continued to produce C-class activity through the remainder of the period.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was enhanced following a long duration C9/1f flare observed at 15/0213 UTC. The alert threshold was not reached however, as the peak flux observed was 8.5 pfu at 16/0755 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit began the period at normal levels but reached high levels from 18-22 Mar with a peak flux of 22,300 pfu on 20 Mar.
Geomagnetic field activity began at quiet to unsettled levels. Quiet to severe storm levels were observed on 17 Mar followed by minor to major storm levels on 18 Mar due to effects from the 15 Mar CME. Unsettled to minor storm levels were observed on 19-20 Mar due to waning CME effects and the onset of the southern polar coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet to active conditions prevailed on 21 Mar. An isolated major storm period was observed between 0600-0900 UTC on 22 Mar followed by active conditions but settled to quiet levels by 1800 UTC. This activity initially looked to be caused by a co-rotating interactive region ahead of a positive polarity high speed stream but it is difficult to ascertain the true origin as the phi angle settled back to negative following the event. It is possible that a transient caused the increase in activity however, a source could not be easily identified.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 March - 18 April 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels to begin the period. Moderate activity is expected from 01-15 Apr with the anticipated return of old Region 2297 followed by low levels for the remainder of the period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the majority of the period with a chance for high levels following southern polar coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects on 30 Mar-01 Apr, 04-06 Apr, and 14-18 Apr.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach minor storm levels on 23 Mar followed by unsettled to active levels on 24-25 Mar due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 26 Mar. Conditions are expected to increase to unsettled to active levels from 27-31 Mar with minor storms likely on 28-29 Mar due to recurrent southern polar CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail from 01-11 Apr with unsettled conditions possible on 03-04 Apr due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active conditions are expected from 12-18 Apr with minor storm conditions likely on 13-15 Apr due to a second round of southern polar CH HSS effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 23 0401 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2015-03-23
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Mar 23 125 20 5
2015 Mar 24 125 20 4
2015 Mar 25 125 18 4
2015 Mar 26 125 5 2
2015 Mar 27 125 15 4
2015 Mar 28 120 25 5
2015 Mar 29 120 25 5
2015 Mar 30 120 12 4
2015 Mar 31 125 10 3
2015 Apr 01 130 8 3
2015 Apr 02 130 10 3
2015 Apr 03 130 15 4
2015 Apr 04 130 12 4
2015 Apr 05 130 5 2
2015 Apr 06 125 5 2
2015 Apr 07 125 8 3
2015 Apr 08 125 8 3
2015 Apr 09 120 5 2
2015 Apr 10 120 5 2
2015 Apr 11 115 5 2
2015 Apr 12 115 15 3
2015 Apr 13 115 30 5
2015 Apr 14 115 20 5
2015 Apr 15 115 20 5
2015 Apr 16 115 20 4
2015 Apr 17 115 15 3
2015 Apr 18 115 20 4
(NOAA)
