Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Apr 13 0314 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 - 12 April 2015
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels throughout the period. Region 2320 (S12, L=211, class/area=Dac/180 on 07 Apr) produced an M1/1b flare at 1443 UTC on 08 April and Region 2321 (N13, L=094, class/area=Ekc/610 on 12 Apr) produced a long-duration M1/Sf flare at 0950 UTC on 12 April, which were the largest events of the period. In addition to the R1 (Minor) radio blackouts, Regions 2320 and 2321 produced numerous low to mid-level C-class flares throughout the week and were the most productive active regions of the period. A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the M1/Sf flare from Region 2321 was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 0948 UTC on 12 April, but was directed well east of the Sun-Earth line.
Region 2320 produced a C3/1f flare at 1906 UTC on 06 April, with associated Type-II and Type-IV radio emissions, which resulted in a CME that was visible in coronagraph imagery beginning at 1936 UTC on 06 April. This CME impacted Earth early on 10 April, causing periods of moderate geomagnetic storms. See "Geomag" portion below for further information.
Toward the end of the period, Region 2320 produced a C6/Sf flare at 2329 UTC on 12 April with associated Type-II radio emissions. A subsequent coronal mass ejection (CME) was first visible in
SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 12/2348 UTC but analysis is ongoing to determine if this event has an Earth-directed component. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels on 06-09 April and at normal levels for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels for 06-09 April under a nominal solar wind regime. The 06 April CME impacted Earth just after 0000 UTC on 10 April, enhancing the geomagnetic field. As the 06 April CME passed the Earth, 10 April began with periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions between 0000-0300 UTC and 0600-0900 UTC and an isolated period of G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm period between 10/0300-0600 UTC. Active conditions were observed between 10/0900-1500 UTC with quiet to unsettled levels observed over the remainder of 10 April. Active conditions were observed once again for the first half of 11 April as residual CME effects continued to subside but the latter half of 11 April was quiet to unsettled. Quiet conditions were observed on 12 April.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 April - 09 May 2015
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels throughout the period, with the exception of 25-26 April, due to the flare potential of Regions 2320 (S12, L=211) and 2321 (N13,
L=094).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring any significant flare activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 21-24 April and 04-09 May, moderate levels on 17-20, 25-28 April, and 01-03 May, and normal levels for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 17 and 30 April with active conditions expected for 16, 25, 29 April and 01 May, all due to coronal hole
high speed stream effects. Quiet to unsettled field activity expected for the remainder of the period.
roduct: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 13 0314 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2015-04-13
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Apr 13 135 5 2
2015 Apr 14 135 5 2
2015 Apr 15 130 5 2
2015 Apr 16 130 15 4
2015 Apr 17 130 20 5
2015 Apr 18 135 12 3
2015 Apr 19 135 8 3
2015 Apr 20 130 8 3
2015 Apr 21 125 8 3
2015 Apr 22 125 8 3
2015 Apr 23 120 8 3
2015 Apr 24 120 8 3
2015 Apr 25 115 10 4
2015 Apr 26 115 8 3
2015 Apr 27 120 8 3
2015 Apr 28 125 8 3
2015 Apr 29 130 12 4
2015 Apr 30 125 18 5
2015 May 01 125 12 4
2015 May 02 125 8 3
2015 May 03 125 8 3
2015 May 04 125 8 3
2015 May 05 125 8 3
2015 May 06 130 8 3
2015 May 07 135 8 3
2015 May 08 135 8 3
(NOAA)