Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Apr 06 0133 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 March - 05 April 2015
Solar activity was at low levels throughout the period. Region 2303 (N19, L=066, class/area=Hkx/400 on 17 Mar) produced low to mid-level C-class activity early in the period while Regions 2318 (N10, L=199, class/area=Dao/199 on 05 Apr) and 2320 (S12, L=212, class/area=Dai/140 on 05 Apr) each produced only low-level C-class flare activity throughout the remainder of the period.
A filament eruption centered near S29E28 was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery between 04/2225-2330 UTC. A long-duration C3/1f hyderflare was measured during this event and had an associated Type-II radio emission. The subsequent fast-moving coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 04/2336 UTC. WSA-ENLIL model output suggests a glancing blow arrival of this CME late on 07 April.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 30 Mar and normal to moderate levels on 31 Mar-05 Apr.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 02-04 Apr with an isolated period of active conditions observed between 2100-2359 UTC on 02 Apr due to the effects of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 30 Mar-01 Apr, and 05 Apr under a mostly nominal solar wind environment.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 April - 02 May 2015
Solar activity is expected to be low (below NOAA Scale event thresholds) with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flare activity throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 22-24 Apr and 02 May, moderate levels on 06-08, 11-14, 17, 20-21 Apr, and 27 Apr-01 May, and at normal levels for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 15-16, 18-19, and 25-27 Apr due to coronal hole high speed stream effects. Active conditions are expected on 07-09 Apr due to the anticipated arrival of the 04/05 Apr CME. Active conditions are expected on 17, 20 Apr, and 28 Apr-01 May due to coronal hole high speed stream effects with generally quiet to unsettled levels likely for the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 06 0134 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2015-04-06
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Apr 06 120 8 3
2015 Apr 07 125 12 4
2015 Apr 08 125 15 4
2015 Apr 09 130 12 4
2015 Apr 10 135 12 3
2015 Apr 11 135 5 2
2015 Apr 12 135 5 2
2015 Apr 13 135 5 2
2015 Apr 14 130 5 2
2015 Apr 15 130 20 5
2015 Apr 16 140 20 5
2015 Apr 17 145 15 4
2015 Apr 18 145 20 5
2015 Apr 19 145 20 5
2015 Apr 20 135 12 4
2015 Apr 21 130 12 3
2015 Apr 22 130 8 3
2015 Apr 23 125 8 3
2015 Apr 24 120 8 3
2015 Apr 25 125 25 5
2015 Apr 26 125 29 5
2015 Apr 27 130 29 5
2015 Apr 28 130 15 4
2015 Apr 29 120 12 4
2015 Apr 30 115 18 4
2015 May 01 115 12 4
2015 May 02 115 8 3
(NOAA)