Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Aug 31 0458 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 - 30 August 2015
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Low levels were observed on 25-26 and 29 Aug, moderate (R1-minor) levels on 27-28 and 30 Aug while high (R2-moderate) levels occurred on 24 Aug. The vast majority of activity was observed from Region 2403 (S15, L=193, class/area Fkc/1190 on 25 Aug). In total, this region produced a total of 58 C-class and six M-class flares. Region 2405 (S19, L=089, class/area Cro/020 on 29 Aug) produced a total of four weak C-class flares.
The period began at high levels as Region 2403 produced an impulsive M5/1b flare at 24/0733 UTC. Later on the 24th, the region produced an M1 flare at 24/1746 UTC. On 27-28 Aug, Region 2403 produced a total of three M-class flares; an M2/1n at 27/0544 UTC, an M2/1f at 28/1316 UTC and an M2/1n at 28/1903 UTC. The period ended when Region 2403 produced a long duration M1 flare at 30/0330 UTC. During the period, no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 24-25 and 29 Aug and moderate levels on 26-28 and 30 Aug. The peak flux observed during the summary period was 1,840 pfu at 25/1700 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 24-25 Aug due to waning effects from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal wind environment with speeds decreasing from about 500 km/s to near 350 km/s by late on 25 Aug. Early on 26 Aug, geomagnetic field conditions increased to unsettled to minor storm (G1-minor) levels due to transient effects from the 22 Aug CME. Geomagnetic activity further increased on 27 Aug to active to major storm (G2-moderate) levels and persisted at these levels through 28 Aug. During this time frame, wind speeds were unimpressive averaging about 350 km/s but the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) peaked at 14 nT coupled with steady southward Bz to -12 nT.
Activity levels remained elevated on 29 Aug at quiet to minor storm levels due to effects from a co-rotating interaction region in advance of an equatorial, negative polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds approached 510 km/s with peak Bt values of 17 nT and peak southward Bz briefly reached -15 nT. 30 Aug saw quiet geomagnetic field conditions with solar wind parameters indicating a return to more nominal levels.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 31 August - 26 September 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels from 31 Aug - 10 Sep and again from 25-26 Sep. From 11-24 Sep, activity levels are expected to increase to low to moderate (R1-minor) due to
the return of old Region 2403 (S15, L=193).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit barring any significant flare activity from returning region 2403 during 11-24 Sep.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 31 Aug - 02 Sep, 07-12 Sep, 19 Sep and 22-25 Sep. High flux levels are expected on 03-06 Sep, 13-18 Sep, 20-21 Sep and 26 Sep.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at minor storm (G1-minor) levels on 01-02 Sep and 19 Sep due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 03-04 Sep, 12-16 Sep, 18 Sep, 20 Sep and 24-25 Sep due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 31 0459 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2015-08-31
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Aug 31 90 8 3
2015 Sep 01 90 20 5
2015 Sep 02 85 22 5
2015 Sep 03 85 15 4
2015 Sep 04 85 10 3
2015 Sep 05 85 8 3
2015 Sep 06 85 8 3
2015 Sep 07 85 5 2
2015 Sep 08 85 5 2
2015 Sep 09 85 5 2
2015 Sep 10 85 5 2
2015 Sep 11 95 5 2
2015 Sep 12 105 12 3
2015 Sep 13 115 15 4
2015 Sep 14 115 10 3
2015 Sep 15 115 8 3
2015 Sep 16 115 10 3
2015 Sep 17 115 5 2
2015 Sep 18 115 8 3
2015 Sep 19 115 20 5
2015 Sep 20 115 10 3
2015 Sep 21 115 5 2
2015 Sep 22 115 5 2
2015 Sep 23 110 5 2
2015 Sep 24 105 15 4
2015 Sep 25 100 10 3
2015 Sep 26 90 5 2
(NOAA)
