:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Aug 24 0441 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 - 23 August 2015
Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels. Very low activity was observed on 17-19 Aug, low level activity on 20 and 23 Aug and moderate level activity on 21-22 Aug. Developing Region 2403 (S15, L=193, class/area Ekc/760 on 23 Aug), which exhibited a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, produced all of the flare activity during the period.
On 21 Aug, Region 2403 produced three M1 (R1-minor) flares, the largest was an M1/2b flare observed at 21/0948 UTC. Associated with this event was a Type II radio emission (estimated 490 km/s shock velocity) and a partial-halo CME observed off the south limb, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 21/1024 UTC. Analysis of this CME determined that a weak Earth-directed component was present.
22 Aug saw 2 more M-class flares produced by Region 2403, thelargest was an M3/1b flare observed at 22/2124 UTC. Early on the 22nd, the region produced an M1/1b flare observed at 22/0649 UTC.
Associated with this event was a Type II radio emission (estimated 1149 km/s shock velocity), a Type IV radio emission and a partial-halo CME observed off the NE limb, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 22/0712 UTC. Analysis of this CME determined that a weak Earth-directed component was present.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 17-22 Aug with a peak flux of 9,116 pfu observed at 21/1830 UTC. Moderate levels were observed on 23 Aug.
Geomagnetic field activity generally ranged from quiet to active levels during the period. Isolated minor storm (G1-minor) periods were observed midday on 17 Aug and again on 23 Aug. An isolated
major storm (G2-moderate) period was observed between 0600-0900 UTC on 23 Aug. From 17-20 Aug, field conditions ranged from quiet to minor storm levels and were influenced by a geoeffective positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). During this time frame, measurements at the ACE satellite indicated peak wind speeds approaching 600 km/s midday on 17 Aug. However, ACE parameters indicated a fairly weak magnetic structure was present with Bz measuring a maximum southward extent of only -7 nT. Quiet to unsettled conditions were present for 21-22 Aug.
By 23 Aug, field conditions increased to unsettled to major storm levels under the influence of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) in advance of an equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS. At about
23/0600 UTC, solar wind parameters observed an increase in wind speeds from about 400 km/s to near 550 km/s by about 23/0900 UTC. Wind speeds further increased to 610 km/s by 23/1400 UTC before ending the period near 525 km/s. IMF total field registered maximum readings of 15 nT at about 23/0700 UTC while the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of -12 nT at about 23/0600 UTC. The phi angle remained in a predominately positive (away) orientation throughout the summary period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 August - 19 September 2015
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2, minor-moderate), with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater), from 24-29 August due to the flare potential from Region 2403. Very low to low flare activity is expected from 30 Aug to 10 Sep after Region 2403 rotates off the visible disk. A return to moderate levels (R1-R2, minor-moderate), with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater), is likely from 11-19 Sep after the return of old Region 2403 (S15, L=193).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit barring any significant flare activity from Region 2403.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels throughout the period. Moderate levels are expected on 24 Aug, 27 Aug, 01-04 Sep, 09-12 Sep
and 19 Sep. High levels are expected from 25-26 Aug, 28-31 Aug, 05-08 Sep and 13-18 Sep.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (minor) on 24 Aug due to effects from the 21 and 22 Aug CMEs coupled with a positive polarity CH HSS. G1 (minor) field activity is also expected on 03 Sep due to a positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 25-29 Aug, 02 Sep, 04-06 Sep, 12-14 Sep, 16 Sep and 27 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 24 0442 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2015-08-24
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Aug 24 120 28 5
2015 Aug 25 120 20 4
2015 Aug 26 125 12 4
2015 Aug 27 125 18 4
2015 Aug 28 125 12 4
2015 Aug 29 120 8 3
2015 Aug 30 115 5 2
2015 Aug 31 115 5 2
2015 Sep 01 110 5 2
2015 Sep 02 105 15 4
2015 Sep 03 100 25 5
2015 Sep 04 100 15 4
2015 Sep 05 100 10 3
2015 Sep 06 95 8 3
2015 Sep 07 95 5 2
2015 Sep 08 95 5 2
2015 Sep 09 95 5 2
2015 Sep 10 90 5 2
2015 Sep 11 85 5 2
2015 Sep 12 95 12 4
2015 Sep 13 100 15 4
2015 Sep 14 105 10 3
2015 Sep 15 105 5 2
2015 Sep 16 105 10 3
2015 Sep 17 105 5 2
2015 Sep 18 105 8 3
2015 Sep 19 105 20 5
(NOAA)