Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Sep 07 0436 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 31 August - 06 September 2015
Solar activity was at very low to low levels over the period. An isolated C2 flare was observed at 31/0522 UTC from Region 2403 (S15, L=193, class/area Fki/1190 on 25 Aug) and a C1 flare occurred at
03/1137 UTC from Region 2407 (N16, L=145, class/area Cso/050 on 01 Sep). No further notable flaring occurred during the period. On 04 September, an approximate 15 degree filament eruption, centered near S17E10, was observed lifting off in SDO/AIA 304 imagery between 04/1709-1854 UTC. A partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 04/1948 UTC with most of the ejecta directed off the SE limb. WSA/ENLIL analysis of the CME determined that an Earth-directed component was not likely.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels from 31 August through 02 September and again from 05-06 September reaching a maximum flux value over the period of 3,188 pfu at 05/1840 UTC. Moderate levels occurred on 03-04 September.
Geomagnetic field activity began the period at quiet levels under a nominal solar wind regime. At 02/1522 UTC, a solar sector boundary crossing was observed in ACE solar wind data accompanied by a islow increase in solar wind speed. By late on 03 September, total field increased to around 12-14 nT with the Bz component deflecting southward to -10 nT. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on
02-03 September. By 04 September, solar wind increased to around 450-550 km/s range as a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS) became geoeffective. Solar wind speeds remained in the 400-500 km/s range through the rest of the period. The geomagnetic field responded with active to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels through
midday on 04 September followed by quiet to active levels on 05-06 September.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 September - 03 October 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) likely from 11-24 September with the return of old Region 2403 (S15, L=192).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely from 13-18 September, 20-21 September, 26-28 September and again
from 02-03 October due to CH HSS effects.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels from 07-08, 11-16, 18-20, 24-25, and 30 September-03 October. Active periods are expected on 07, 12, 19, 24 September-03 October with
minor storm periods (G1-Minor) possible on 19 September and 01 October, all due to recurrent CH HSS effects.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 07 0437 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2015-09-07
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Sep 07 85 12 4
2015 Sep 08 85 8 3
2015 Sep 09 85 5 2
2015 Sep 10 85 5 2
2015 Sep 11 95 8 3
2015 Sep 12 95 12 4
2015 Sep 13 95 8 3
2015 Sep 14 95 10 3
2015 Sep 15 100 10 3
2015 Sep 16 105 10 3
2015 Sep 17 110 5 2
2015 Sep 18 115 8 3
2015 Sep 19 115 20 5
2015 Sep 20 115 10 3
2015 Sep 21 115 5 2
2015 Sep 22 115 5 2
2015 Sep 23 110 5 2
2015 Sep 24 105 15 4
2015 Sep 25 100 10 3
2015 Sep 26 95 5 2
2015 Sep 27 90 5 2
2015 Sep 28 90 5 2
2015 Sep 29 90 5 2
2015 Sep 30 90 8 3
2015 Oct 01 90 18 5
2015 Oct 02 85 12 4
2015 Oct 03 85 12 4
(NOAA)